Acadia (ACHC) to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. ACHC is set to report its fourth-quarter 2022 results on Feb 27, after the closing bell.
In the last reported quarter, the hospital operator reported adjusted earnings per share of 80 cents, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, due to solid demand for behavioral health services and improved admissions. However, the positives were partially offset by an elevated expense level.
Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to the fourth-quarter earnings announcement.
The Trend in Estimate Revision
Both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share of 74 cents indicate a 10.5% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported earnings of 67 cents per share. The consensus estimate has witnessed no movement in the past week.
While the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $659.2 million, suggesting a rise of 11.1% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure, our estimate predicts 10.5% year-over-year growth.
Acadia Healthcare’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters, met once and missed on the other occasion, the average surprise being 3.5%. This is depicted in the graph below.
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. Quote
Factors to Note
Both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for U.S. facility admissions indicate an improvement of 1.9% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. Also, the consensus estimate and our estimate for the average length of stay suggest 3.3% growth from a year ago. Both estimates for fourth-quarter patient days indicate a 5.4% increase from the prior-year period.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for U.S. same-facility admissions point to a 0.5% year-over-year increase. Both estimates for fourth-quarter patient days suggest 3.5% growth from the prior-year period. The estimates for the average length of stay predict a 3.3% year-over-year jump.
The consensus mark for acute inpatient psychiatric facilities’ revenues indicates 12.6% growth from a year ago. Both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for specialty treatment facilities show a 10.2% increase from the prior-year period actuals.
The factors stated above are expected to have positioned the company for year-over-year growth in revenues and bottom line. However, rising operating expenses can play spoilsports. Higher salaries, wages and benefits, and professional fees supply costs are expected to have increased in the fourth quarter, affecting margins, making an earnings beat uncertain.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Acadia Healthcare this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. The Most Accurate Estimate is currently pegged at 74 cents per share, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Acadia Healthcare currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Stocks to Consider
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Acadia Healthcare, here are some companies in the broader medical space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:
Heska Corporation HSKA has an Earnings ESP of +11.50% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Heska Corporation’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates an 8.6% improvement from a year ago. The consensus estimate for HSKA’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $64 million.
SI-BONE, Inc. SIBN has an Earnings ESP of +5.51% and a Zacks Rank #3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SI-BONE’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 2.3% improvement from a year ago. The consensus mark for revenues suggests a 26% year-over-year increase.
Merus N.V. MRUS has an Earnings ESP of +28.91% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Merus’ bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter has remained stable over the past week. MRUS beat earnings estimates in all the past four quarters, with an average of 42%.
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Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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