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Is Acadian Timber Corp.’s (TSE:ADN) Cash Outlook Optimistic?

Kyle Sanford

Two important questions to ask before you buy Acadian Timber Corp. (TSE:ADN) is, how it makes money and how it spends its cash. After investment, what’s left over is what belongs to you, the investor. This also determines how much the stock is worth. I will take you through ADN’s cash flow health and the risk-return concept based on the stock’s cash flow yield, using the most recent financial data. This will help you think about the company from a cash perspective, which is a crucial factor to investing.

See our latest analysis for Acadian Timber

What is Acadian Timber’s cash yield?

Acadian Timber’s free cash flow (FCF) is the level of cash flow the business generates from its operational activities, after it reinvests in the company as capital expenditure. This type of expense is needed for Acadian Timber to continue to grow, or at least, maintain its current operations.

There are two methods I will use to evaluate the quality of Acadian Timber’s FCF: firstly, I will measure its FCF yield relative to the market index yield; secondly, I will examine whether its operating cash flow will continue to grow into the future, which will give us a sense of sustainability.

Free Cash Flow = Operating Cash Flows – Net Capital Expenditure

Free Cash Flow Yield = Free Cash Flow / Enterprise Value

where Enterprise Value = Market Capitalisation + Net Debt

Along with a positive operating cash flow, Acadian Timber also generates a positive free cash flow. However, the yield of 3.33% is not sufficient to compensate for the level of risk investors are taking on. This is because Acadian Timber’s yield is well-below the market yield, in addition to serving higher risk compared to the well-diversified market index.

TSX:ADN Net Worth January 27th 19

Does Acadian Timber have a favourable cash flow trend?

Can ADN improve its operating cash production in the future? Let’s take a quick look at the cash flow trend the company is expected to deliver over time. In the next couple of years, the company is expected to grow its cash from operations at a double-digit rate of 14%, ramping up from its current levels of CA$18m to CA$21m in two years’ time. Although this seems impressive, breaking down into year-on-year growth rates, ADN’s operating cash flow growth is expected to decline from a rate of 13% next year, to 0.9% in the following year. However the overall picture seems encouraging, should capital expenditure levels maintain at an appropriate level.

Next Steps:

Given a low free cash flow yield, on the basis of cash, Acadian Timber becomes a less appealing investment. This is because you would be better compensated in terms of cash yield, by investing in the market index, as well as take on lower diversification risk. However, cash is only one aspect of investing. Keep in mind that cash is only one aspect of investment analysis and there are other important fundamentals to assess. I recommend you continue to research Acadian Timber to get a better picture of the company by looking at:

  1. Valuation: What is ADN worth today? Is the stock undervalued, even when its growth outlook is factored into its intrinsic value? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether ADN is currently mispriced by the market.
  2. Management Team: An experienced management team on the helm increases our confidence in the business – take a look at who sits on Acadian Timber’s board and the CEO’s back ground.
  3. Other High-Performing Stocks: If you believe you should cushion your portfolio with something less risky, scroll through our free list of these great stocks here.

To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.