Aegis Sees 260% Upside in Alder Biopharmaceuticals Inc (ALDR)
Investors continue to dump shares of Alder Biopharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:ALDR) following the release of top-line results from the first (Promise 1) of two phase III trials in patients with frequent episodic migraines (FEM). The stock is currently trading at 11.47, down $0.68 or -5.56%.
However, Aegis analyst Difei Yang actually believes the recent results brought ALDR's migraine drug one step closer to FDA approval. The analyst reiterates a Buy rating on the stock, with a price target of $41, which represents a potential upside of nearly 260% from where the stock is currently trading.
Yang wrote, "The results showed a statistically significant reduction in monthly migraine days from baseline, meeting the trials primary endpoint. For weeks 1 through 12, eptinezumab demonstrated reductions in monthly migraine days of 4.3 days for the 300mg arm (p=0.0001) and 3.9 days for the 100mg arm (p=0.0179) compared to 3.2 days for placebo. Eptinezumab's safety and tolerability were comparable with previous studies and similar to placebo."
The analyst continued, "100% responder analysis represents baseline market opportunity for eptinezumab in our eyes. In our view, it is too early to draw clear-cut comparisons between mAbs in the evolving migraine prevention landscape. However, we do believe that the 100% responder rate for roughly 1 in every 5 patients represents a very attractive, baseline market opportunity for Alder. In contrast with popular view that sub-q is better than IV for patient convenience, we see IV with quarterly dosing vs. monthly sub-q dosing could provide a better market differentiation."
According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts' and bloggers' success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Difei Yang has a yearly average return of 9.7% and a 50.5% success rate. Yang has a -49.4% average return when recommending ALDR, and is ranked #402 out of 4600 analysts.
Overall, out of the 9 analysts polled by TipRanks (in the past 3 months), 7 rate Alder stock a Buy, 1 rates the stock a Hold and 1 recommends to Sell. With a return potential of 193%, the stock's consensus target price stands at $33.67.
