The ValuEngine valuation warning intensified with 77.1% of all stocks overvalued and with 46.3% overvalued by 20% or more. 15 of 16 sectors are overvalued, 14 by double-digit percentages, eight by more than 20%.
A close today above my monthly pivot at 3663 on the Nasdaq indicates upside to monthly and semiannual risky levels at 16,188 and 16,490 Dow industrials, 1742.5 and 1743.5 S&P 500, 3663 and 3759 Nasdaq, 7087 and 7104 Dow transports and 1092.24 and 1089.42 Russell 2000. The % upside shown in the table below is between 2.1% and 6.5%.
My quarterly value levels are 14,288 Dow industrials, 1525.6 S&P 500, 3284 Nasdaq, 5348 Dow transports and 863.05 on the Russell 2000 with My annual value levels lag at 12,696 Dow industrials, 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq and 809.54 Russell 2000. The % downside risk is shown in the right most column in the table below. Note that the downside is more than 20% for four of the six averages in the table.
Today's earnings scorecard covers companies that reported on Tuesday and Wednesday:
On July 26 I wrote, Facebook Booms, Merck, Pfizer Earnings Loom and here's how the six performed since then:
Aetna ($63.73) beat EPS estimates by 13 cents earning $1.52 a share. The stock held its 50-day SMA at $62.13 on July 30. My semiannual value level is $60.96 with an annual pivot at $62.77 and a new monthly risky level at $68.49.
Cummins ($122.94) beat EPS estimates by 23 cents earning $2.20 a share. The stock set a new 2013 high at $123.90 on July 30. My quarterly value level is $100.94 with a new monthly risky level at $131.11.
Merck ($48.58) beat EPS estimates by 2 cents earning 84 cents a share. The stock moved sideways with my annual value level at $46.99, a quarterly pivot at $47.75 and semiannual risky level at $51.80.
Pfizer ($29.11) beat EPS estimates by 2 cents earning 56 cents a share. The stock traded up to $30.42 on July 30 then faded. My semiannual value level is $28.62 with a new monthly risky level at $30.84.
United States Steel ($17.35) beat EPS estimates by 27 cents with a loss of 54 cents a share. The stock ended July 30 below its 50-day SMA at $17.96. My new monthly value level is $17.16 with a weekly risky level at $18.34.
On July 29 I wrote, MasterCard, Hess, Whole Foods Earnings Preview, and here's how the eight performed since then.
Con-Way ($45.79) beat EPS estimates by 8 cents earning 67 cents a share. This trucking stock popped to $46.07 on August 1 setting a new multi-year high above semiannual and monthly pivots at $41.77 and $43.74.
Curtiss-Wright ($43.68) beat EPS estimates by 4 cents earning 70 cents a share. The aerospace stock spiked to $43.76 on August 1 setting a new multi-year high. My annual pivot is $41.19 with an annual risky level at $46.51.
Delphi Automotive ($55.43) beat EPS estimates by 11 cents earning $1.24 a share. The auto-tire-truck stock slipped to $53.26 on July 31 then rebounded to a new multi-year high at $55.90 on August 1 with my new monthly risky level at $58.52.
Garmin ($39.94) beat EPS estimates by 11 cents earning 76 cents a share. The provider of navigating devices popped to $40.25 on August 1 vs. my quarterly risky level at $43.58.
Hess ($76.04) beat EPS estimates by 10 cents earning $1.51 a share. The oils-energy stock traded up to a new multi-year high at $76.34 on August 1 with my new monthly risky level at $86.66.
Humana ($91.31) beat EPS estimates by 17 cents earning $2.63 a share. The medical sector stock set a 2013 high at $92.74 on July 31. Thursday's close was between my annual pivots at $89.78 and $91.58.
MasterCard ($646.38) beat EPS estimates by 64 cents earning $6.96 a share. The business services stock slipped to $567.02 on July 31 then popped to a new multi-year high at $649.65 on August 1. The low was between semiannual pivots at $527.51 and $593.62 and the high is above monthly and quarterly pivots at $619.66 and $626.11.
Whole Foods Market ($55.14) beat EPS estimates by a penny earning 38 cents a share. The retail-wholesale stock traded between $54.31 and $56.60 on August 1. Thursday's close is between my new monthly value level is $53.88 and this week's pivot at $55.44.
At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.