AIM ImmunoTech Inc. (NYSEMKT:AIM) last week reported its latest third-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Statutory losses were a bit smaller than expected, at just US$0.08 per share, even though revenues of US$36k missed analyst expectations by a shocking 90%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from AIM ImmunoTech's three analysts is for revenues of US$1.53m in 2021, which would reflect a substantial 797% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 24% to US$0.37. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.52m and losses of US$0.41 per share in 2021. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.
The average price target held steady at US$6.25, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic AIM ImmunoTech analyst has a price target of US$7.25 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$5.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting AIM ImmunoTech's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 8x growth ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 9.1% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 21% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that AIM ImmunoTech is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple AIM ImmunoTech analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 6 warning signs for AIM ImmunoTech (of which 3 are potentially serious!) you should know about.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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