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Alliance Data Systems Corp (ADS) Q2 2019 Earnings Call Transcript

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Alliance Data Systems Corp (NYSE: ADS)
Q2 2019 Earnings Call
Jul 18, 2019, 8:30 a.m. ET

Contents:

  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Alliance Data Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Following today's presentation, the floor will be open for your questions. [Operator Instructions] In order to view the Company's presentation on the website, please remember to turn off the pop-up blocker on your computer.

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Ms. Vicky Nakhla of AdvisIRy Partners. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

Vicky Nakhla -- Investor Relations

Thank you, operator. By now, you should have received the copy of the Company's second quarter 2019 earnings release. If you haven't, please call AdvisIRy Partners at (212) 750-5800. On the call today, we have Robert Minicucci, Board Chairman of Alliance Data; Melisa Miller, President and Chief Executive Officer of Alliance Data; Tim King, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Alliance Data; and Charles Horn, Executive Vice President and Chief -- and Vice Chairman of Alliance Data.

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that some of the comments made on today's call and some of the responses to your questions may contain forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to the risks and uncertainties described in the Company's earnings release and other filings with the SEC. Alliance Data has no obligation to update the information presented on the call. Also on today's call, our speakers will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe will provide useful information for investors. Reconciliation of those measures to GAAP will be posted on the Investor Relations website at alliancedata.com.

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Robert Minicucci. Robert?

Robert A. Minicucci -- Chairman

Good morning, all. I won't repeat the management introductions just been affected [Phonetic]. So, let me say a few words regarding the Company's strategic direction and the related organizational changes announced last month. As discussed on previous earnings calls over the last 18 months, the Board and Management together conducted a comprehensive, strategic review of the Company, its component businesses and its go-forward strategy. Through that process, a number of steps were identified, including the sale of the Epsilon business and other initiatives designed in each case to simplify the Alliance Data narrative and more importantly focus capital and effort on the Card Services business. That business comprises both the Company's highest earnings and highest growth assets.

Previously Ed Heffernan had led the company through a strategic review process and implementation of these initiatives, some of which have been completed other of which are in-flight and progressing as expected. At leadership on these transformative projects was invaluable and his departure was part of a succession plan implemented in connection with the Company's new strategic direction. The Board extends its sincere thanks to Ed for his outstanding services.

So we begin a new chapter in the Company's leadership. It's aligned with our Card Services focus, our new President and CEO, Melisa Miller joins us from the Card Services business, which she successfully led as President for the last eight years. Our new CFO, Tim King also comes for -- to his role from Card Services where he served as CFO for the past seven years. Given the respective backgrounds in the Alliance status, strategic direction, the Board believes Melisa and Tim are ideally suited to lead the Company. And we have every confidence in their ability to take Alliance Data to new levels of success.

Finally, our former CFO, Charles Horn has taken on a new role as Vice Chairman. In this capacity, he will oversee on an interim basis a number of transitions of the Company, resulting from the Epsilon transaction, including ongoing cost reductions and other Board initiatives.

I'll now ask Melisa to provide some introductory remarks.

Melisa Miller -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, good morning, everyone and thank you, Rob for the kind introductions and for delivering them in person. I wanted to begin today by saying how honored and incredibly excited I am to be assuming this new role, including the expected challenges and the opportunities that lie ahead. As Rob mentioned, we have a sound plan in place to transform this great Company and we've been successfully executing against that plan in the past several months. To be sure, we are making intentional, purposeful changes for the long-term viability and health of the organization. We are laser focused on returning Alliance Data toward more formidable growth and profit profile and achieving our key objective with this transformation. And that key objective is to unlock greater shareholder value and deliver value to all of our key stakeholders.

During this deliberate journey we have and will continue to tackle the tough decisions head-on. We will make the necessary and critical changes in the short term to restore credibility and confidence for the long term. We are well positioned to drive our performance and long-term profitable, sustainable success. My commitment in getting our consistent growth came back on track is steadfast and while our expected success does not come without some anticipated near term choppiness, we set a new course for Alliance Data's growth and viability for the long haul.

I am confident in what our future holds and prepared to both lead and support our business, heading into this exciting new chapter.

Charles, I'll now turn the floor over to you.

Charles Horn -- Executive Vice President and Vice Chairman

Thanks, Melisa. Let's flip to page 4, and we'll discuss consolidated results for the second quarter. Revenue decreased 3% to $1.35 billion, adjusted EBITDA net decreased 15% to $310 million and core EPS decreased 12% to $3.83 for the second quarter of 2019. These results exclude the Epsilon segment, which was in discontinued operations. Our second quarter results were mostly in line with expectations. Although, core EPS was negatively impacted by the timing of credit card portfolio acquisitions. We acquired several client portfolios aggregating over $900 million in June, which we expected to acquire later in the year. While this pull-forward supports our receivables growth projections for the year. The impact of the provision builds post acquisition reduce second quarter EPS.

The provision bill leads revenue recognition for a couple of months following the acquisition of a portfolio. EPS decreased 33% to $2.71 for the second quarter of 2019. Our higher effective tax rate, 27% compared to 50% in the prior-year quarter, negatively impacted EPS by approximately $0.43 for the second quarter. As previously discussed, we completed the sale of Epsilon to Publicis Groupe on July 1st. We anticipate using the net proceeds of approximately $3.5 billion from the transaction to retire corporate debt and repurchase our shares. The debt retirement of $2.4 billion is largely done, driving our pro forma debt leverage ratio 1.6 x and we plan to launch within the next few days a modified Dutch tender -- Dutch auction tender offer to acquire between $700 million to $750 million of our common stock. The remainder of our share repurchase authorization has been set aside as dry powder. To enable opportunistic future open market for other purchases, the timing of which is tied to other initiatives under way.

Let's flip over to the next page. And we'll talk a little bit about LoyaltyOne. LoyaltyOne revenue increased 1% to $251 million for the second quarter. Adjusted for unfavorable foreign exchange rates in the shift to a net revenue presentation on certain product redemptions at AIR MILES, revenue increased 10% for the second quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA, decreased 23% on a constant currency basis, primarily due to higher cost redemptions at AIR MILES, largely a function of product mix redeemed. Break it down the results further, AIR MILES' revenue, adjusted for the items discussed above decreased 6% due to lower redemption's. Issuance and redemption's, both decreased 2% for the second quarter with issuance's down due to the timing of promotional activity. BrandLoyalty's revenue increased 24% on a constant currency basis, due to strong program performance in Europe, Asia and Brazil. We continue to focus on driving cost efficiencies in order to improve EBITDA margins back into the historical mid-teens range.

With that I will turn it over to Tim King to talk about the Card Services.

Tim King -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Charles. It's a honor and pleasure to be here today. I look forward to working with all of you. Getting started, let's turn to page 6, where I will review our key statistics. Overall, you should take from this slide, that we are beginning to show improvements in our AR and credit sales, while maintaining healthy credit quality and return on equity metrics. Starting with credit sales, we're flat to Q2 2018. Recall that in Q1, this number was down 7% year-over-year. You may recall that Charles outlined during the Q1 call, but it takes some time for our newer programs to just move up. This is fully in line with our expectation that it would take a quarter or two for the new healthy vintages to replace the divested programs.

We expect healthy year-over-year increases for the remainder of 2019. Also showing improvement from the prior quarters are the AR metrics. For instance, end of period AR was down 5% Q1 versus a decrease of only 2% of this quarter. TR metrics will add credit sales, however with credit sales we expect continued improvement and positive variances for the next few quarters. Previously we guided to a year-end AR number greater than $20 billion and we are still very comfortable with this target.

As Charles mentioned a few strategic acquisitions were pulled forward into Q2, which pressured yields. But ultimately these acquisitions will be beneficial to the remainder of the year. Operating expenses, excluding the impact of the mark-to-market for the held for sale receivables were 9.4% or 25 basis points worse versus prior year. As in previous quarters, this number is being affected by the mark-to-market accounting.

Let's turn to our credit quality metrics. As expected we continue to see improvement in loss and delinquency rates, both of which are showing a 30 basis point improvement. Finally, on this page we continue to show a very stable 31% return on equity. This number is consistent with Q2 2018 and Q1 of 2019. The key takeaways are improved credit sales and AR numbers, stable credit quality and return on equity results.

Let's turn to page 7 and review key financial numbers. Revenue was down $50 million or 4% for the quarter. This is driven by slightly lower normalized average receivables coupled with lower gross yields. As previously discussed, the variance in the operating expense ratios, the ratios -- we're seeing here are the dollar variances.

And as mentioned earlier, this is being driven entirely by the mark-to-market accounting for these held for sale receivables. The provision expense benefited from a slight decrease in receivables, lower charge-off rates and better delinquencies with some offset due to the provision build required for the day 2 accounting of the newly acquired portfolios. Lastly, our cost of funds are up from 2% to 2.3% resulting in $30 million increase in primarily due to the higher spread in the ABS market.

I will now turn it over to Charles, who will run you through the updated full year guidance.

Charles Horn -- Executive Vice President and Vice Chairman

Thanks, Tim. What you will see basically is our revenue guidance for the year remains at the $5.8 billion or 4% increase that we talked about in the first quarter. We have updated the reported core EPS guidance to reflect the anticipated Dutch tender as well as the completed cost reductions at the corporate location. In addition, we remain on track to deliver accretion compared to the original guidance of $22 for 2019 as pro forma core EPS is still expected to exceed the lower end of the range provided during the last earnings call.

With that I will flip it back over to Melisa.

Melisa Miller -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Charles. I'd ask everyone now to turn to slide 9. And I wanted to take just a moment to both reinforce and highlight where we see Card Services ending 2019. As Tim mentioned, we are confident in our guidance on the growth and quality of our receivables and expect to end 2019 with greater than $20 billion in card receivables. As predicted with credit quality stable we turn our full attention to maximizing the value of both our legacy core and our newer programs. Our deliberate expansion into a wide range of healthy verticals, including the new partners we've welcomed this year provide the momentum to achieve our targets and position us well for future success.

We note that our newer vintages. So those programs launched in 2015 and beyond now represent over $5.5 billion in average receivables with incremental runway for growth based on our historical trends. The recent launch of our consumer deposit platforms, platform with deposits approaching $1 billion will provide incremental flexibility for future growth. So in wrapping up the financial aspects of our review, the core tenants of the Card Services business are improving completely consistent with our plan. Receivables growth returning, credit quality, stable and new business is ramping nicely.

In closing, we felt it was equally important to spend a few minutes on the value metrics of the Card Services model in particular, essentially offering insight into why we continue to win and stay differentiated in our space. Put differently, many of you ask these questions of us who are you really? And how are you differentiated? So we want to spend just a few minutes on that question. And I'd ask you now to turn to slide 10.

An answer to the question of who are we? We are really the brand behind the brands that customers love. We have over 30 years of experience in building the most valuable and successful programs in our space. It is no accident that customers who have one of our branded cards in their wallet spend two to three times more than customers without a card.

Now you may have heard that proofpoint before we highlighted again, because once the card member has one of our branded cards, we are able to keep them or retain them as an engaged customer at a far higher rate than others in our space. More importantly, when we welcome a brand and convert a program we always see the value of the program grow by 20% to 30%. So your next question might be, how do we make all of that happen.

Turning now to slide 11, it's really how we lead the market in the convergence of three core competencies. Data driven insights, marketing and payments. This is where we invest our time, energy and our effort. Our team of experts soar through the clutter in the CF choices facing consumers today and we are uniquely able to deliver the very precise, very personalized experience and recommendations that customers demand today.

We have deliberately expanded our universe and verticals where our tools, technology and techniques will also add value. Specialty apparel will continue to be important to our portfolio. More importantly, we've successfully extended into winning categories to meet the emerging demands of consumers and brands. Specifically, we successfully expanded into beauty. So think Ulta and Sephora. We've expanded into the home goods category. I think Pottery Barn and E-tail, I think Wayfair. These are just a few examples of how we are actively leading in the transformation of the retail space.

We are seeking healthy verticals and brands with a multi-channel approach to serving consumers. And the one thing, all of these verticals have in common is that the consumer is in the driver seat. The consumer is at the heart of everything we do and they are also at the heart of everything that our brands do. And while the consumers' needs and behaviors are changing our deep understanding of them will not. Our purpose is clear. We help our brand no more about their customers, so they can sell more. Our approach of blending data, marketing and payments together ensures that we build more successful programs than anyone in our space. We acquire more, retain more and maximize the spending and engagement in a manner that differentiates us. We wanted to give you a bit of a preview today, we'd ask you to stay tuned for more, sometime in the late fall, you can expect that we'll be hosting an Investor Day. We look forward to walking this community through a deeper dive with greater specificity on what the next, best generation of Alliance Data Systems will bring to the industry.

With that operator, we are finished with our prepared remarks and I'd ask that we open up the line for questions.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Certainly. [Operator Instructions] Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW. Your line is open.

Sanjay Sakhrani -- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc. -- Analyst

All right. Thank you and congratulations to you all in the call, Melisa, Tim, Charles on your elevator roles. I guess my first question is a higher level one where, Melisa, maybe you could walk us through some of the objectives you have to get the company back on track and how it might differ to the ones previously articulated to us? And obviously Rob, please feel free to chime in on the repositioning and sort of the progress there. Underneath at all, I also had a question for Charles or Tim on the strategic repositioning because another some odd $500 million of loans were moved to held for sale? Are we done with those or will there be more?

Melisa Miller -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Sanjay, I'll go ahead and take that first question by the way. Thank you for the words of encouragement. For us, what we would say is that we are really creating a maniacal focus on how we create value for all of our stakeholders. Our shareholders of course brands we serve, the consumers that we support getting very, very clear on our key differentiators, what are the consumer trends in the marketplace. And then making sure that we have a sound strategy of knowing where to invest and what it takes to win consistently, getting our growth came back on track as I mentioned is a priority. But it's also important to mention that it's not growth at all cost, we hold ourselves to a very, very high standards and you can expect that these ROEs of 30% or greater are standards that we will continue to hold ourselves to. So we are engaged with conversations across all of our levels of management, be clear on our priorities, be maniacally focused on returning value for all of our stakeholders and creating focus for our organization.

Tim King -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

So Sanjay, it's Tim, I'll take the held-for-sale question. Obviously in the quarter, we actually had some success and we were able to move some portfolios out, but we also had one strategic non-renewal, frankly was a client that was -- the economics were untenable for us. So we have decided to let that portfolio go. So in essence, you'll see on our balance sheet the held for sale about flat, and that was a function of obviously divesting some programs, were successful with those and then obviously marketing one portfolio held for sale.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Darrin Peller with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Darrin Peller -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Hey, thanks, guys. Melisa and Tim I also want to echo my congrats on the role. Let me just start off -- if you could talk about the profile and your $900 million book that you acquired a little sooner than you expected, I guess first what types of portfolios are these in mall, they e-commerce oriented, what kind of loss profile that they have. And then the ROE on the new active AR that you have, now that's growing. And then, Melisa when we think about the bigger picture for the Card, well, may be a Card stand-alone business long term. Can you talk to us about, do you foresee that being still a double-digit receivables grower? I know you've mentioned 30% plus ROEs, but maybe just a little bit more profile, are you still going to have some profile of loans in the mall, in the traditional retail that you've had before or is it -- are you really trying to shift it all to more omni-channel type e-com offering?

Melisa Miller -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, Darrin. Thank you, all. If I may, I'll answer that question in reverse order. In terms of our growth profile. As I mentioned, we are just keenly focused on restoring sustainable profitable growth. But we will use a balanced scorecard approach. We do hold ourselves accountable for growing AR, but again not at all costs. So we'll continue to hold ourselves to a very high standard. And as I mentioned, you can expect to see us delivering superior ROEs than others in our space. With respect to mall-based versus non-mall based, for us, we're going to be opportunistic. There are brands that are domiciled in malls that are still winning. And where we have a healthy brand, where there can be a program where we can add value we will be opportunistic and pursue it, what's most important for us is seeking those brand partners that have a multi-channel approach.

Darrin, that's when we can build our biggest and most valuable programs. We know that when we can get one of our cardholders holders shopping in more than one channel, they are more than two times as valuable. So having a multi-channel approach for the brands that we serve is really important. With respect to the brand profile of the acquisition, more to come on that later Darrin, is we actually relaunch the programs, will be a little bit more specific, but take great comfort in knowing that a couple of these brands are actually in some of these winning segments that we've discussed and these are completely consistent with our overarching strategy.

Darrin Peller -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Okay. And then just a quick follow-up, I mean in terms of the strategy now for the next 12 to 18 months, I assume that the LoyaltyOne business is on the radar in terms of -- I guess, the question really is how active are you in that process? How should we, as investors and analysts think about that business? How quickly should we expect this to be a stand-alone Card Services company?

Charles Horn -- Executive Vice President and Vice Chairman

Yeah, Darrin, it's one of those where we've talked about, going back to the first quarter and actually before we have a number of initiatives under way. Visually nothing to discuss at this point or to announce at this point, but we will keep you updated as we move forward with these initiatives.

Robert A. Minicucci -- Chairman

I think it's best -- and it's Rob Minicucci speaking. I think from a Board perspective -- we got a little out ahead of our skis in November when we talked about Epsilon and frankly management and the Board have resolved that. We're going to announce something when we have an announcement -- Epsilon, when we signed a contract, and that's going to be the policy of this Company going forward. We're not going to talk about on the [Indecipherable] we're going to announce something when we have something to announce.

Darrin Peller -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Okay. That makes sense guys. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bob Napoli with William Blair. Your line is open.

Robert Napoli -- William Blair -- Analyst

Thank you, and congratulations as well. Melisa, one of the things that I needed -- I think there has been some concern maybe around your clients that maybe you could address is that the sale of Epsilon has removed some of the value-add potential that Alliance Data brings to its partners. And that what we sense maybe was a little bit of consternation among your customer base, but can you guys just address that and talk about the skill set that you bring to the table today versus what you brought to the table with Epsilon?

Melisa Miller -- President and Chief Executive Officer

You got -- and I'm so glad that you asked that question, because we do not expect this transaction to change in any way the value or the nature of our relationships with our brands. We've had a long history of working together with Epsilon and have actually enjoyed the relationship, a great deal, it's completely memorialized with arms, length agreements, we are one of Epi's largest most strategic partners and as such together, we have an opportunity to influence their innovation and technology roadmap. What's important for this group to know is while we do leverage some of the capabilities and the data assets, it's really the 30 years of experience and the data scientists and the data analyst and the marketers within the Card Services business that have leveraged these capabilities and have made these program saying we don't expect to miss a beat.

Robert A. Minicucci -- Chairman

And Rob Minicucci again, I want to support that statement by giving you a fact or two. Previously each of the three businesses, the executives running the business units at a compensation scheme based on their performance and both EBITDA and revenue growth were accounted for 80% of their economics. So we had -- at Card Services arms length agreement with Epsilon, in the past, we have extended that contract. And now, instead of 80%, it's a 100% where there is no corporate overhead sharing if you will. But there really is no change in the economic incentive to the executives running the respective businesses. So, again we have a contract in place, we expect them to be a valuable partner with us. And it's just documented now, as I suggested.

Robert Napoli -- William Blair -- Analyst

Thank you. Just, and a follow-up question. I mean there is a -- you put out a pro forma EPS at least $22.67 for 2019. And you talk Melisa about critical changes in the short term, near term choppiness, like how much visibility do you have on that, on that number and then maybe as importantly or more importantly, there is a very wide range of estimates out there for 2020? And if you could just maybe and -- if you could, you could address that at all, because if you have good visibility on the $22.67 that maybe add a little bit of color to how people think about or if you could add some color on how people think about 2020.

Tim King -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Sure, Bob. I'd say that if you look at it from a performance standpoint. We have very good visibility into Card Services numbers this year as well as LoyaltyOne. You do have a variable associated with $350 million of consideration from Epsilon that we sell back. So based upon the deployment of that $350 million in terms of open market purchases that can influence the run rate a little bit, just in terms of timing, but otherwise, I'd say, we have very good visibility into achieving that number.

Robert Napoli -- William Blair -- Analyst

Okay. And then as we think about 2020, any color on that -- very broad range of -- you would expect to grow that number in 2020 or is a near-term choppiness add some cloudiness to that capability?

Tim King -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

I wouldn't say there's any cloudiness, Bob. But I will say this -- it is somewhat dependent upon some of the other initiatives we have under way. So it probably be a little bit premature for us to start jumping in and talking into 2020 at this point.

Robert Napoli -- William Blair -- Analyst

Thank you. Appreciate it.

Operator

Andrew Jeffrey with SunTrust. Your line is open.

Andrew Jeffrey -- SunTrust -- Analyst

Hey, good morning, all. Thanks for taking the question. Melisa, I'm just honing in on one of the bullet points on slide 7 in the deck that talks about OpEx in Card Services. I wonder if you could elaborate a little bit on some of the investments you're making for new partner launches, sort of how those might compare with historical growth investments in Card Services and how you think about those both from a timing perspective. And in the context of your long-term ROE targets?

Melisa Miller -- President and Chief Executive Officer

You bet -- what I would tell you is the types of investments with -- to support new program launches are consistent with what we've seen in the past. What makes -- what will change the dynamics of the investment is whether or not we have a large number of stores that we have to bring up and train. The amount of collateral that is in keeping with training all of those stores. And actually the number of channels that a partner integrates with us. So one of our greatest strengths is that we interact with our partners in all of our channels.

It's also, one of the things that add some expense upfront, both on the technology side. And then the people side as we get our brand partners pulled up. So this profile isn't terribly different, but we did have a number of new partners that we brought up this past quarter. So we had a lot of activity with respect to new brand.

Andrew Jeffrey -- SunTrust -- Analyst

Okay. And would you expect to see sort of the leverage on those expenses in the back half of '19? Or does that wind up being more of a 2020 kind of event?

Tim King -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Andrew, it's Tim. We would expect that at the back half of 2019.

Andrew Jeffrey -- SunTrust -- Analyst

Okay. And then one quick last one for me, Tim. Can you quantify the amount of provision lift or the higher provisions this quarter resulting from that portfolio acquisitions, the timing value?

Tim King -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

It was about $10 million.

Andrew Jeffrey -- SunTrust -- Analyst

Great, thank you.

Operator

Jason Deleeuw with Piper Jaffray. Your line is open.

Jason Deleeuw -- Piper Jaffray -- Analyst

Good morning and thanks for taking the question and congrats everyone with the elevated positions. Melisa, I was hoping you could talk about the addressable market opportunity that you see out there that's still remaining for Card Services. And then, just given all your experience in the space. Just talk about the evolution of the competitive environment. Have there been any significant changes on that front over the years?

Melisa Miller -- President and Chief Executive Officer

You bet. I'm glad you asked that question, Jason. Because part of the reason that we're so bullish on our future is that the addressable market is actually growing for our space. As we see, emerging retailers coming into the market. So, we would tell you that, when you look across $1 trillion that's actually available to us and we do a little bit of the Goldilocks, some are too large, some are not going to fully leverage our sweet spot. We would tell you that there is about $250 billion worth of opportunities that we could pursue where we put our head on the pillow at night and say, our tools and our approach could add value to this program. So it's a very, very large market.

And if we were to just say, all right, let's get our 35% share of this market. You can see that you've got a very, very significant growth path. I'd also add Jason while not in the scheme of new business, in the scheme of growth path, when you think about that 2015 vintage and beyond, because so many of those programs were start-ups, that also provides us with a great deal of runway for growth. So we are really optimistic that we are in a marketplace that has a lot of white space for us, that's for sure.

In terms of the competitive landscape, we would tell you that it's crowded. There are certainly some emerging payment solution companies. This group might refer to them as Fintechs that are becoming more prominent in the marketplace and we're watching them very closely. Consumers do have expanding demands. Everything we do is to serve consumers. So, we are clear on what consumer demand may mean for us and are watching very closely how we might serve those emerging demands. Does that help Jason?

Jason Deleeuw -- Piper Jaffray -- Analyst

Yes. That's very helpful. And then as a follow-up, just -- is there any help you can give us. I'm thinking about receivables growth. In June, the active clients receivables grew 12% have been growing 10%. And then on the last call there was talk about 15% receivables revenue run rate, growth rate. So I'm just, is there any help you can give us. I'm thinking about kind of the targeted or just kind of a range of receivables growth?

Tim King -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Sure. So, in the latter half of the year, you're going to get mid-teens active growth. I think you're quoting the active growth, Jason. And we should finish the year in the low to mid-teens for our active growth for the receivables. If you go just to reported, you're going to be more in the single digits in Q2, moving to the double digits in Q4, finished the year, low single digits.

Jason Deleeuw -- Piper Jaffray -- Analyst

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Will Nance with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Will Nance -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Hi, guys. Good morning and congratulations to Melisa and Tim. So I maybe wanted to start off on credit -- so delinquencies and losses have both been improving recently and when we look out over the next year or two, how should we think about the interplay between on one hand, the portfolio growing really fast and some of the newer portfolios and that can tend to put upward pressure on losses versus some of the tailwinds you have from lower recoveries and some of the shift toward some of the higher quality portfolios? I guess how are you thinking about losses over the next 18, 24 months?

Melisa Miller -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I think, that's a great question, well, and we would tell you that we've lived through the cycle of delinquency and losses and when we look out into the future, we would tell you, we would expect both would be stable.

Tim King -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

And Will, on your question recoveries, I would tell you there is no pressure or change in our strategy at all, the recovery process is very, very stable. We wouldn't expect any change to what we're experiencing now.

Will Nance -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe if I could hit on the yields. They've been under a little bit more pressure for the first half of the year. I guess, can you talk about some of the moving pieces and how we should think about that as some of the newer programs start to spool up. And I guess on that -- no, like when we think about the Company moving more toward kind of a card-centric focus. Is there any thought being put toward maybe moving toward more of a GAAP presentation of results over time?

Tim King -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

So I'll answer the yield question and then come back to the GAAP question in the second. We would expect it, we spool up some of those programs you saw announced last quarter and over the course of the last few weeks. As well as the spool up of the portfolios we purchased. By the end of the year we should be down a little bit, but fairly consistent year-over-year versus 2018. So we obviously will have some rebound in Q3 and Q4. And obviously on the GAAP presentation.

Charles Horn -- Executive Vice President and Vice Chairman

It's really going to come down, Will to the other initiatives under way. At this point we think it's before EPS is still a very good metric, as time goes by that could change. But there's really nothing at this time to indicate that that's going to happen.

Will Nance -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Got it. All right. Thank you for taking my questions everyone.

Operator

David Scharf with JMP Securities. Your line is open.

David Scharf -- JMP Securities -- Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions and welcome, Melisa and Tim. I guess -- the question I had, and it also dovetails to maybe a broader question on some of your plans for future disclosure, with the management transition in place. I'm wondering -- Melisa, we have disclosure, obviously in the securitization, documents of your top 10 retail programs that are in those asset pools and their concentration. And the vertical breakdown on slide 11 is very helpful, but obviously, the securitized assets are only about 40% of the total now. I'm wondering specifically, if there is any color you could provide on perhaps how those verticals that you outlined in slide 11 stack up in terms of the mix of the portfolio and see whether or not going forward, we may get increased disclosure on program-specific balances for the managed receivables not just the securitized?

Tim King -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

It's something we've thought about and clearly as we've transitioned the portfolio, we'll continue to think about what's the right disclosure. So I would say stay tuned, I'll make a joke in my expense five weeks into the job. So we got to think about those disclosures and what the organization looks like in the future and about what's the right segmentation, so, stay tuned.

David Scharf -- JMP Securities -- Analyst

Got it and OK. Thank you very much.

Operator

Dan Perlin with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Dan Perlin -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Thanks, good morning. I -- Melisa, now that you've taken over and I'm sure you guys have done another deep dive in terms of looking over the core portfolio. Are there any retailers that are on your watch list that could surprise in the core business that we should be at least mindful of as we think through this transition right now?

Melisa Miller -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, Dan. That's a good question. There are some brands within our core portfolio that have struggled certainly with their top line growth. We are in constant contact with the senior level individuals within these brands, meet often to understand what their plans are. The great news is they are no matter size that if some sort of event were to occur, that we would expect there would be any impact to us.

Dan Perlin -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Okay. And then the other question I had was around corporate expenses declining kind of post the divestiture of Epsilon. So it looks like, in the quarter, it was down about $12 million. I don't know if that's entirely related to that, but can you just help us a little bit with the cadence in order to get us to that pro forma, $1 to $1.15, that I think you guys had provided in the first quarter?

Tim King -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, Dan, it's a situation where we think fit from an EBITDA standpoint or drain. We can take it to fully in the $94 million $96 million of expense this year. As you saw, going forward, we think is from an EBITDA standpoint, we can take it to as low as $60 million or maybe better. So what you're seeing is the partial year benefit coming through in 2019 will look for the full run rate benefits entering into 2020.

Dan Perlin -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Okay. And then just one last quick one. The wind-down in this retail marketing division of brand loyalty, how big was that business? Was that contemplated? Any just color there would be great? Thank you.

Tim King -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

It was pretty small. I think the charge we took in the first quarter was around EUR8 million. It was basically a satellite office that wasn't really carrying its [Phonetic] weight, we did have some inventory, we did have some leasehold improvements that we wrote-off, but it was an overly large charge to us, Dan.

Dan Perlin -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Thank you, guys.

Operator

George Mihalos with Cowen. Your line is open.

George Mihalos -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Thank you. Good morning and congrats, everyone as well. Melisa, just wanted to follow up on something that you had said about Fintech competition in the space, if you could kind of elaborate on that? And is it -- you're talking more about some of these non-traditional financing methods that may be -- some of these retailers are employing sort of like a, mini layaway program or is it proliferation of digital wallets and Apple Pay and PayPal, things like that, where maybe there is an embedded funding source and that could be impacting usage.

Melisa Miller -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, George. It's really the former and not the latter. Particularly, we're seeing it obviously in the web environment or the digital environment and certainly not in-store, it's really an acknowledgment that there are emerging payment types in the marketplace. We're watching them very, very closely, what's interesting about some of these Fintech organizations is as you know, none of them really have their own bank charter. So we believe that we have a unique opportunity both because we have expertise on the financial side and we have strong relationships with our brand partners on the technology side. And for me, it was really an acknowledgment that consumer needs are changing, in order for us to stay relevant and differentiated we have to make sure that we have options to serve those needs. Does that help, George?

George Mihalos -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

That's very helpful. That's perfect. And maybe just a quick follow-up. As you enter or expand in some of these newer verticals. Just curious, the demographics of your customer, is that materially changing? Is there anything that kind of call out there that may be a little bit different than how some of these historical users of your private label instruments?

Melisa Miller -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Great question. From a credit quality standpoint, George, we would tell you that our standard certainly don't change. Demographically though our newer vintages are skewing a bit younger and what we like about that is that helps to balance the overall demographics of our file. So our legacy core has a tenancy to be a bit more mature on the spectrum and some of the newer brands that we've on-boarded attract a slightly younger customer. So on balance, it's a really great mix for us.

George Mihalos -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Jamie Friedman with Susquehanna. Your line is open.

Jamie Friedman -- Susquehanna -- Analyst

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. It's a talented new team, exciting time for the Company. My first one is about in terms of the prior guidance, I know it's better for Charles or for Tim. But when you gave the receivables guidance last quarter, had that already contemplated the new portfolio acquisitions?

Tim King -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

It had, it just obviously, we had contemplated that being later in the year. So we pulled that up into Q2 and hence the effect on the provision and the overall income for Q2, but we -- number that we had given before for our year-end guidance had contemplated the portfolio acquisitions.

Jamie Friedman -- Susquehanna -- Analyst

Got it. Okay, thanks. And then just a follow-up there. In terms of the $900 million in new AR, how should we be thinking about the profitability contribution of that say near and longer term, anything you'd call out about that part of the book?

Tim King -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

No, it's going to be fairly consistent with our -- the book as you see at the overall book. So nothing that I'd call it, in particular, it does take obviously a little bit of time to spool up to get the normality. I mean, the first quarter, we're going to have a provision billable, but once we get to a run rate by the end of the year it should be at the overall portfolio levels.

Jamie Friedman -- Susquehanna -- Analyst

Great. I'll jump back into the queue. Thank you.

Operator

Ashish Sabadra with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Ashish Sabadra -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Thanks. Let me also echo my congratulations to the team. My question was on the allowance for loan losses. Those have been coming down. And as the results have been released, but as we think about receivables growing going forward, how should we think about the headwinds from reserve build going forward? And then also just a question on CECL, any initial thoughts on CECL effective in 2020? Thanks.

Tim King -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Sure. So thanks, Ashish for the question. First on the allowance, I wouldn't expect any additional pressure from the charge-off of the delinquency -- charge-off of the delinquency, we expect to be very flat to slightly better on the year and therefore no pressure on allowance as contemplated under the guidance in 2019. As we adopt the CECL into 2020, we've been very successful in hard goods and jewelry, those assets generally have longer lives. So we would expect to have some build as we go into 2020 as we adopt CECL. We're going to have to look at the end of period balance sheet to see how much we have of the longer-lived assets versus the shorter-lived asset, but we do expect some build.

Ashish Sabadra -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. And maybe a question on capital allocation going forward. Thanks for providing the details around the Dutch process. But my question was about the free cash flow, the business generates a lot of cash. How should we think about the use of cash going forward? And is there a change in strategy there?

Charles Horn -- Executive Vice President and Vice Chairman

Ashish, the way I would look at is, we'll continue to balance the leverage at the Holdco, the parent level debt, we've taken it down to a very manageable level at 1.6 times leverage right at the moment. So what we always try to do is balance the reward or basically the contributions back to the shareholders as well as balancing that parent level debt. We think -- we're in very good shape. Going forward, I think it's going to be pretty much driven by the other initiatives we have under way and that can influence how much we return to shareholders could be more or could influence we go a little bit the other direction, it could be a little less. But I would anticipate that going forward is you'll still see a share repurchase program in place for Alliance Data, it will be probably an authorization of usually $500 million a year of which some portion is going to be used to return capital to shareholders.

Ashish Sabadra -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Vincent Caintic with Stephens. Your line is open.

Vincent Caintic -- Stephens Inc. -- Analyst

Thanks and good morning, guys. Just have a question on the $900 million and perhaps the opportunity set for more portfolio acquisitions. What is the market looking like in terms of being able to acquire more? And then conversely how this the organic market look like, so if you could maybe talk about the $20 billion in guidance and how it looks like versus the -- for the acquisitions versus the organic growth? Thank you.

Melisa Miller -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Vincent, your question, would we expect any more portfolio acquisitions this year? I want to be sure I'm answering the question that you're asking.

Vincent Caintic -- Stephens Inc. -- Analyst

Yeah. For this year and then also just what you see is -- maybe the pipeline of portfolio acquisitions, if there is big market out there for more acquisitions?

Melisa Miller -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, moving forward, 2020 and beyond and we would tell you even into this year, we would be opportunistic, if one or something became available, we don't have further acquisitions contemplated in this guidance that we've shared with you today. But again, we would be opportunistic, if we can add value and it meets our financial hurdles and we have a committed brand. With respect to the pipeline in general we have built out our pipeline for the next three to four years. So we're pretty clear on which programs are likely to become available and are building a strategy on how or if we would pursue them.

Vincent Caintic -- Stephens Inc. -- Analyst

Got you. Thanks. And when you look at those pipelines. I know you said that you have -- so you're growing, but not necessarily at all costs sort of -- if you could give us a sense of when you look at a portfolio of what sort of hurdle rate and sort of what kind of characteristics you look at as you're looking for that growth? Thank you.

Tim King -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I'll start and then maybe Melisa jump in and oddly I'll start off, is the finance guy, so, in the first thing we look for is commitment from the management team of our partners. And we have a strong commitment those programs grow. That basically then ends up being a program that we know we can grow the sales we can grow the program, we can grow the number of accounts were coming out of programs. So that first and foremost, the size of the portfolio, the vertical they're in as well as the credit profile dictates what type of return we're going to demand of those. And so we generally will talk about a blended but we won't talk about a specific in the open market, we're trying to manage to the blended given on the different verticals we're in the different size portfolios.

Melisa Miller -- President and Chief Executive Officer

And we are, as I mentioned earlier, I think several times today, really holding ourselves accountable to that ROE of 30% or greater, and the folks within card are conditioned for that type of threshold as well.

Vincent Caintic -- Stephens Inc. -- Analyst

Great. Thanks very much.

Operator

We have one final question in the queue Surinder Thind with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Surinder Thind -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Good morning. Just following up on question about the strategic direction of the firm. More specifically when we look toward the end of the year is the excluding any strategic decisions around brand loyalty. Should we expect the firm to be at full run rate. Meaning, all of the changes surrounding the cost cuts at Epsilon, obviously the repurchase of the shares from the Dutch auction. And then it seems like there is a little bit of variability around some of the spending on some of the initiatives, but how should we think about where the firm is going to be positioned at a year-end basis relative to kind of the pro forma guidance of run rate reduced?

Charles Horn -- Executive Vice President and Vice Chairman

And the answer is yes, we would be looking forward to be a full pro forma run rate as of January 1st, as we did talk about earlier the $350 million that we've set aside is dry powder for the repurchase. There is some variability, when will deploy that which could impacted to some degree Surinder. But overall, I'd say all the profitability initiatives, the corporate reductions everything that we have planned will be at a full run rate by pretty much January 1st.

Surinder Thind -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Understood. And then just a point of clarification, how should we think about the growth of the active portfolio in the back half of the year, if you can just revisit that and then maybe on a longer term basis looking into 2020?

Tim King -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Sure. So the active, the back half of the year long -- I will quote average AR -- should we expecting mid teens, low-teens growth rate from my active AR back half of the year. As we get toward the latter half of this year, we would expect reported an active to be the same. And so we won't obviously quote active go forward because we won't have -- look at that metric anymore.

Surinder Thind -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time, I would now like to turn the call back over to the presenters for final remarks.

Melisa Miller -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, we will end the call the same way that I begin the call today with great enthusiasm in this new role. I appreciate everyone's interest in our firm, everyone's congratulations and we will talk with you next quarter. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

Duration: 53 minutes

Call participants:

Vicky Nakhla -- Investor Relations

Robert A. Minicucci -- Chairman

Melisa Miller -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Charles Horn -- Executive Vice President and Vice Chairman

Tim King -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Sanjay Sakhrani -- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc. -- Analyst

Darrin Peller -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Robert Napoli -- William Blair -- Analyst

Andrew Jeffrey -- SunTrust -- Analyst

Jason Deleeuw -- Piper Jaffray -- Analyst

Will Nance -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

David Scharf -- JMP Securities -- Analyst

Dan Perlin -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

George Mihalos -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Jamie Friedman -- Susquehanna -- Analyst

Ashish Sabadra -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Vincent Caintic -- Stephens Inc. -- Analyst

Surinder Thind -- Jefferies -- Analyst

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