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Always a Quick Draw; Falling Euro Hammers Oil Stocks: Jim Cramer's Best Blogs

Jim Cramer

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Jim Cramer fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:

Click here for information on RealMoney, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.

Easy There, Quick Draw McGraw

Posted at 11:31 a.m. EDT on Friday, Nov. 8

This business is humbling. Don't be humbled even more than you should be.

That's the takeaway of some horrendous after-hours trading that we just saw last night, a night that should serve as a constant reminder of how you simply must wait and hear the conference calls of every stock before you pull the trigger. Making money isn't about who is the fastest, it's about who is the most thoughtful.

Last night, within just a few minutes of trading, we got reports from Groupon and Priceline.com , two red-hot Internet plays that had already been under pressure in the wake of the non-Twitter rout in everything social, mobile and cloud. Priceline fell 50 points even as the company reported a fantastic quarter as the guidance was perceived as being incredibly weak. Groupon dropped a $1 off a $9.90 basis as traders took one look at the quarter and decided that the bloom of the two new CEOs was off the rose and it was time to skedaddle.

At the same time, Disney announced a quarter that looked terrific on the surface, but traders dumped the stock down to $64, off a couple of bucks, on what looked to be weaker ESPN numbers. Given that ESPN is one of the best growth engines for the company, which was the kiss of death for the stock, which has been on a tear because of ESPN as well as theme parks and some extremely powerful movie franchises.

If there were NFL coaches in this game, they would have thrown the red flag and the refs would be right in the booth taking a look at the replays of the trading in these fine companies. In our business, that's the equivalent of reading the headlines, studying the release, but the most importantly -- and as I always say -- listening to the conference calls.

And here's what they would have heard: the businesses of Priceline, Groupon and Disney are firing on all cylinders and 2014, what we are investing for, is setting up as a remarkable year for all three.

First, Priceline, which has been chronically underestimated by Wall Street because the snob analysts would never use its service, has been able to instantly leverage what is now looking like a brilliant acquisition of Kayak to expand even faster than it had been. That's why the stock reversed and is now just slightly lower.

Second, you would have heard that Groupon's new management team, Chairman Ted Leonsis and CEO Eric Lefkosky, have cracked the mobile code for Groupon and a mobile coupon and deal company is much more powerful than a static one. The company's a cellphone marketplace. It's going to be a very big stock for 2014 and that's why it reversed and is now up 15% from the bottom of last night's trading.

Disney's probably the silliest of all. The analysts, almost to a person, seemed freaked out by some perceived slowing in ESPN, but the company explained it all away cogently and completely by talking about how some fees had been taken in a previous quarter. So the stock then u-turns and goes up four points.

To me, this is all totally idiotic. It's one thing when you get a stock wrong, as I did, relying on Goldman Sachs research and some previous comments by management, for example, that The Gap was doing terribly when it turned out that things were actually fabulous. My bad.

It's another thing to simply not even wait for answers and just go shooting. Remember the tales of Priceline, Groupon and Disney. They are poster boys of why I always warn you not to trade after hours. And if you waited and did the homework, you could have made an overnight fortune.

Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, has no positions in the stocks mentioned.

The Falling Euro Hammers Oil Stocks

Posted at 12:02 p.m. EDT on Thursday, Nov. 7

Currencies bore me. Why? Because I know they bore you. Unless you travel overseas, you don't think about currencies. They are irrelevant to almost everyone reading.

But some days, currencies are almost all that matter. I say "almost," because this is Twitter's day. However, a cut in the interest rates in Europe this morning -- some called it a surprise cut, even as almost all the people I know were looking for it --caused the euro to get hammered and the dollar to shoot up. Because oil is denominated in dollars, that allows more oil to be bought for less money, and that's causing a huge decline in everything oil-related, even as the companies themselves are doing extraordinarily well.

Because the currency is the impetus, not the companies, it is very confusing to people, but it is the reason, not the numbers. For example EOG Resources reported a magnificent number and gave a big guide-up, but it gets hit anyway.

The plunge in the euro and the sharp rise in the dollar may not last. I would be a buyer of the oils, not a seller, because I believe, in the end, that demand for oil is still strong, and the assets in the ground are huge.

Still, though, I see on my screen what you see, and we know currency is the reason, not the earnings, and that's where I think the opportunity comes in.

Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, has no positions in the stocks mentioned.

  • stock market hassles and
  • the falling Euro

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