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Teacher jobs should open up across America this year, Goldman Sachs says

America’s education sector has been hammered with major job losses by the coronavirus pandemic, but that tide may be turning after Congress passed the $1.9 trillion stimulus package.

According to Goldman Sachs, the K-12 sector is about to experience a big hiring spree as schools reopen and funds are provided to various school districts across the country.

“The upshot is that while we expect reopening and fiscal support to fuel a sharp rebound in state and local government employment, governments could take months to budget for and rehire new workers for the next fiscal year,” Goldman Sachs authors wrote in a note on March 12. “As a result, we expect at least 2/3 of state and local jobs (about 900k) will return by September, with much of the gain concentrated in Q3.”

As of February 2021, state and local governments shed more than one million education jobs amid the pandemic. That contraction has been more severe than the previous recessions. Those affected can range from school teachers, teaching aides, college professors, administrators, janitors, and more.

Screenshot from the St. Louis Fed.
Screenshot from the St. Louis Fed.

'Do more but with fewer resources'

The job losses strained school districts across the country.

“The pandemic has forced school districts to do more but with fewer resources and educators, putting students’ learning at a disadvantage,” Khalilah M. Harris, acting vice president for K-12 Education Policy at the Center for American Progress, told Yahoo Finance.

For instance, in the Rochester City School District in upstate New York, cutbacks on staff — including cooks — had forced them to deliver cold meals for children, including sandwiches that appeared to be moldy.

“This processed stuff is disgusting,” Amy Maloy, the district’s commissioner, said in a Facebook post on March 2. “In a community already plagued by food deserts and processed options that detrimentally affect our students’ health. I am beyond livid.”

First lady Jill Biden waves as she looks at the monitor the teacher is using for online teaching during a tour at Samuel Smith Elementary School in Burlington, N,J., on Monday, March 15, 2021. (Anna Moneymaker/The New York Times via AP, Pool)
First lady Jill Biden waves as she looks at the monitor the teacher is using for online teaching during a tour at Samuel Smith Elementary School in Burlington, N,J., on Monday, March 15, 2021. (Anna Moneymaker/The New York Times via AP, Pool)

The state is expected to receive about $200 million from the stimulus package, according to a local paper.

“Congress has approved more than $800bn in fiscal aid and education funds for state and local governments, which should reverse most budget-related job losses over the next several months,” Goldman Sachs analysts stated. “Most states start a new fiscal year in July and should reflect the new aid by then, and schools will need to rehire most workers by the time they reopen in September.”

The job losses in education have been far worse than a decade ago during the financial crisis.

“It’s devastating,” Elise Gould of the Economic Policy Institute previously told Yahoo Finance. “Schools are struggling to open with the pandemic — it seems like they may need more resources, not fewer resources in these challenging times and to see their resources fall is particularly distressing.”

"About half of peak job loss in 2013 was in education, while today nearly 1 million of the 1.36 million job losses are in education." (Screenshot from Goldman Sachs report)
"About half of peak job loss in 2013 was in education, while today nearly 1 million of the 1.36 million job losses are in education." (Screenshot from Goldman Sachs report)

Not all jobs lost were teaching positions. According to data from the Occupational Employment Statistics, non-teaching jobs constitute over half of employment in K-12 schools, Goldman Sachs noted.

“Nearly 1.5 million education workers are teacher assistants and substitute teachers, a role that school administrators reported as the most likely to experience layoffs during the last economic downturn,” the authors wrote.

These jobs ”seem very likely to return” once states relax restrictions and see a boost to their budget because of the stimulus package.

Aarthi Swaminathan is a reporter for Yahoo Finance, covering education. Follow her on Twitter at @aarthiswami.

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