Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year
Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN) just released its first-quarter report and things are looking bullish. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 2.6% to hit US$6.2b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$3.07, some 2.3% above whatthe analysts had expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
See our latest analysis for Amgen
Following the latest results, Amgen's 25 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$25.3b in 2020. This would be a satisfactory 5.7% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 2.4% to US$12.55 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$25.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$12.38 in 2020. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$251, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Amgen at US$291 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$185. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Amgen's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 5.7% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.4%p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 18% next year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Amgen is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that Amgen's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$251, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Amgen analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Amgen you should know about.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.
