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Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) Up 12.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

Zacks Equity Research
Diodes (DIOD) closed at $36.92 in the latest trading session, marking a +0.35% move from the prior day.

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD). Shares have added about 12.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Amicus Therapeutics due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Amicus Reports Wider-than-Expected-Loss for 2018

Amicus reported loss of $1.88 per share for full-year 2018, wider than the year-ago loss of $1.85 and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.74.

Total revenues in 2018 were $91.2 million, reflecting 147.2% increase from $36.9 million in 2017. The figure exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $89.9 million. The company realized revenues from commercial sales and reimbursed expanded access programs for the company’s only marketed drug Galafold (migalastat).Growth in 2018 was largely driven by EU, and other countries outside the United States and Japan. Revenues exceeded the full-year 2018 guidance range of $80-$90 million.

Pipeline Update

Amicus received Breakthrough Therapy designation for AT-GAA in late onset Pompe disease. The company expects to complete enrollment in pivotal PROPEL study in Pompe disease and report additional phase II data in 2019.

The company has two gene-therapy programs in pipeline for two different types of Batten disease. It expects to release results from the phase I/II study in the middle of 2019 from the CLN6 Batten program in additional patients at two years following a one-time administration of its gene therapy. Amicus also expects to complete enrollment in the ongoing CLN3 Batten disease phase I/IIstudy.

The company plans to establish preclinical proof of concept for Fabry and Pompe gene therapies in 2019.

2019 Guidance

For full-year 2019, the company expects total Galafold revenues of $160-$180 million. The upside is expected to be driven by continued growth in EU markets, further geographic expansion and success from the first full year of launch in the United States and Japan.

The company expects to end 2019 with approximately $300-million cash in hand. The current cash position is anticipated to fund ongoing operations till at least mid-2021.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. The consensus estimate has shifted -23.08% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Amicus Therapeutics has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, Amicus Therapeutics has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.



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