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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD). Shares have lost about 7.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Amicus Therapeutics due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Amicus' Q2 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Revenues Miss
Amicus reported a loss of 20 cents per share in the second quarter of 2020, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 26 cents and the year-ago quarter’s loss of 36 cents.
Total revenues in the reported quarter were $62.4 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $63 million but increasing 41% from the year-ago figure of $44.1 million.
Quarter in Detail
Global revenues for Galafold (migalastat) in the second quarter of 2020 were $62.4 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 41% from the total revenues of $44.1 million in the second quarter of 2019. Sales were driven by continued solid performance across the global business, including new patient starts from switch and naive patients throughout the quarter in all major regions. Performance was driven largely by strong patient demand.
Adjusted operating expenses of $95.9 million for the second quarter of 2020 decreased from $103.6 million in the second quarter of 2019, reflecting lower travel and third-party costs, offset by continued investments in the gene therapy pipeline.
For 2020, the company expects total Galafold revenues of $250-$260 million based on the average exchange rates for 2019.
Based on the current operating models, the company believes that the current cash position along with the net proceeds from the 2020 Senior Secured Term Loan and expected revenues is sufficient to fund its operations and ongoing research programs.
The lead pipeline candidate in Amicus’ portfolio is AT-GAA, a differentiated biologic for Pompe disease. The company plans to initiate a rolling biologics license application (BLA) for AT-GAA for the treatment of Pompe disease in 2020.The company expects to add full clinical results in the first half of 2021 to support full approval.
Amicus has two gene-therapy programs for two different types of Batten disease. The company plans to advance regulatory discussions in order to finalize clinical and regulatory paths for CLN6 Batten programs.
The company expects to report initial data on patients enrolled in the CLN3 Batten disease phase I/II study in early 2021. It plans to advance regulatory discussions to finalize clinical and regulatory paths.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month.
Currently, Amicus Therapeutics has an average Growth Score of C, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the lowest quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions has been net zero. Notably, Amicus Therapeutics has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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