It's been a pretty great week for Autolus Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ:AUTL) shareholders, with its shares surging 12% to US$10.09 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Statutory losses were much smaller than expected, at just US$0.60 per share, even though revenues of US$338k missed analyst expectations by a remarkable 32%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the seven analysts covering Autolus Therapeutics, is for revenues of US$1.23m in 2020, which would reflect a measurable 4.0% reduction in Autolus Therapeutics' sales over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are predicted to creep up to US$2.85. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.16m and losses of US$3.09 per share in 2020. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated losses the business will incur.
The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$26.33, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite adjustments to both revenue and earnings estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Autolus Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$50.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$13.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would also point out that the forecast 4.0% revenue decline is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink -53% annually over the past year
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Autolus Therapeutics. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Autolus Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Autolus Therapeutics is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is concerning...
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.