Mirati Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRTX) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. Revenues of US$11m beat estimates by a substantial 5,293% margin. Unfortunately, Mirati Therapeutics also reported a statutory loss of US$1.96 per share, which at least was smaller than the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Mirati Therapeutics after the latest results.
Following the latest results, Mirati Therapeutics' twelve analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$23.6m in 2021. This would be a substantial 93% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are predicted to creep up to US$8.37. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$22.6m and losses of US$8.60 per share in 2021. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrades to both revenue and loss per share forecasts for next year.
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$221, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Mirati Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$262 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$176. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Mirati Therapeutics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. Next year brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to grow 93%, in line with its 96% annual growth over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 20% per year. So it's pretty clear that Mirati Therapeutics is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Mirati Therapeutics going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Mirati Therapeutics that you should be aware of.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email firstname.lastname@example.org.