Analysts Are Betting On Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VYGR) With A Big Upgrade This Week
Celebrations may be in order for Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VYGR) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a significant upgrade to their statutory estimates for the company. The analysts have sharply increased their revenue numbers, with a view that Voyager Therapeutics will make substantially more sales than they'd previously expected.
After the upgrade, the consensus from Voyager Therapeutics' 15 analysts is for revenues of US$75m in 2020, which would reflect a concerning 36% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Losses are supposed to balloon 159% to US$2.87 per share. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$67m and US$3.01 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a sizeable increase to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated loss as the business grows towards breakeven.
Check out our latest analysis for Voyager Therapeutics
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$22.64, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Voyager Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$43.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$13.00. We would probably assign less value to the forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be possible to derive much meaning from the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with the forecast 36% revenue decline a notable change from historical growth of 53% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 22% next year. It's pretty clear that Voyager Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that analysts reduced their loss per share estimates for this year, reflecting increased optimism around Voyager Therapeutics'prospects. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow slower than the wider market. Seeing the dramatic upgrade to this year's forecasts, it might be time to take another look at Voyager Therapeutics.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Voyager Therapeutics going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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