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Shareholders in BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) may be thrilled to learn that the analysts have just delivered a major upgrade to their near-term forecasts. The consensus statutory numbers for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) increased, with their view clearly much more bullish on the company's business prospects. The market may be pricing in some blue sky too, with the share price gaining 24% to US$113 in the last 7 days. We'll be curious to see if these new estimates convince the market to lift the stock price higher still.
After the upgrade, the ten analysts covering BioNTech are now predicting revenues of €4.4b in 2021. If met, this would reflect a sizeable improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to turn into profits real soon, with the analysts forecasting €8.31 in per-share earnings. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €3.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of €4.78 in 2021. There has definitely been an improvement in perception recently, with the analysts substantially increasing both their earnings and revenue estimates.
It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for BioNTech 8.7% to €79.07 on the back of these upgrades. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values BioNTech at €128 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €56.76. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that BioNTech's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 25x revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 18% p.a. over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 20% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that BioNTech is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us from these new estimates is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, with improved earnings power expected for next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, and sales are expected to grow faster than the wider market. With a serious upgrade to expectations and a rising price target, it might be time to take another look at BioNTech.
These earnings upgrades look like a sterling endorsement, but before diving in - you should know that we've spotted 3 potential warning signs with BioNTech, including dilutive stock issuance over the past year. For more information, you can click through to our platform to learn more about this and the 2 other warning signs we've identified .
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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