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Analysts Just Published A Bright New Outlook For BioNTech SE's (NASDAQ:BNTX)

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Simply Wall St
·3 min read
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Celebrations may be in order for BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a significant upgrade to their statutory estimates for the company. The analysts greatly increased their revenue estimates, suggesting a stark improvement in business fundamentals. BioNTech has also found favour with investors, with the stock up a remarkable 22% to US$105 over the past week. We'll be curious to see if these new estimates convince the market to lift the stock price higher still.

Following the upgrade, the current consensus from BioNTech's ten analysts is for revenues of €6.5b in 2021 which - if met - would reflect a sizeable increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to turn into profits real soon, with the analysts forecasting €15.41 in per-share earnings. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €5.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of €13.51 in 2021. There has definitely been an improvement in perception recently, with the analysts substantially increasing both their earnings and revenue estimates.

See our latest analysis for BioNTech

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

Despite these upgrades, the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of €92.60, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic BioNTech analyst has a price target of €135 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €69.34. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that BioNTech's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 30x revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 18% p.a. over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 20% next year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect BioNTech to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away from this upgrade is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates for next year, expecting improving business conditions. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, and sales are expected to grow faster than the wider market. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling, but with a serious upgrade to next year's earnings expectations, it might be time to take another look at BioNTech.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple BioNTech analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.