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Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On American Superconductor Corporation's (NASDAQ:AMSC) Annual Report

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Shareholders of American Superconductor Corporation (NASDAQ:AMSC) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 17% to US$17.54 following its latest yearly results. American Superconductor reported revenues of US$87m, in line with expectations, but it unfortunately also reported (statutory) losses of US$0.95 per share, which were slightly larger than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for American Superconductor


Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from American Superconductor's three analysts is for revenues of US$109.9m in 2022, which would reflect a sizeable 26% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 24% to US$0.72. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$98.8m and losses of US$0.64 per share in 2022. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts significantly increasing their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase. It looks like the revenue growth will not be achieved without incremental costs.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$27.33, with growing revenues seemingly enough to offset the concern of growing losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values American Superconductor at US$30.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$24.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting American Superconductor is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. For example, we noticed that American Superconductor's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 26% growth to the end of 2022 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 2.8% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 11% annually. Not only are American Superconductor's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple American Superconductor analysts - going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - American Superconductor has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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