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Axos Financial, Inc. (NYSE:AX) last week reported its latest full-year results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues came in 4.0% below expectations, at US$620m. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of US$3.56 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Axos Financial from five analysts is for revenues of US$695.8m in 2022 which, if met, would be a notable 12% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 2.5% to US$3.55 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$702.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.57 in 2022. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$55.50. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Axos Financial, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$60.00 and the most bearish at US$52.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Axos Financial is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2022 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 13% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues fall 3.1% per year. So not only is Axos Financial expected to maintain its revenue growth despite the wider downturn, it's also forecast to grow faster than the industry as a whole.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, they made no changes to their revenue estimates - and they expect sales to perform better than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$55.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Axos Financial going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Axos Financial that you need to be mindful of.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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