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A week ago, Casey's General Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:CASY) came out with a strong set of yearly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 2.5% to hit US$8.7b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$8.38, some 3.1% above whatthe analysts had expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Casey's General Stores' nine analysts is for revenues of US$10.2b in 2022, which would reflect a notable 17% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$8.28, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$10.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.35 in 2022. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$219. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Casey's General Stores, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$262 and the most bearish at US$170 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Casey's General Stores' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 17% annualised growth to the end of 2022 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.2% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Casey's General Stores is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Casey's General Stores going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Casey's General Stores , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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