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The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on CuriosityStream Inc. (NASDAQ:CURI), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its first-quarter results last week. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at US$9.9m, but statutory earnings fell catastrophically short, with a loss of US$0.39 some 89% larger than what the analysts had predicted. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on CuriosityStream after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from CuriosityStream's seven analysts is for revenues of US$71.1m in 2021, which would reflect a substantial 69% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 58% to US$0.84. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$71.1m and losses of US$0.65 per share in 2021. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a massive increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
The consensus price target held steady at US$20.29, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic CuriosityStream analyst has a price target of US$26.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$13.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2021 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 101% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 87% annual growth over the past year. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 16% annually. So it's pretty clear that CuriosityStream is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at CuriosityStream. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for CuriosityStream going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for CuriosityStream that you should be aware of.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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