One thing we could say about the analysts on Mayne Pharma Group Limited (ASX:MYX) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting the analysts have soured majorly on the business.
Following the latest downgrade, the current consensus, from the three analysts covering Mayne Pharma Group, is for revenues of AU$412m in 2023, which would reflect a perceptible 2.9% reduction in Mayne Pharma Group's sales over the past 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 85% to AU$0.023. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of AU$474m and AU$0.01 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.
The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at AU$0.43, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Mayne Pharma Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$0.56 and the most bearish at AU$0.32 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Mayne Pharma Group shareholders.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2023 compared to the historical decline of 7.6% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 34% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Mayne Pharma Group is expected to see its sales affected worse than other companies in the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at Mayne Pharma Group. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Mayne Pharma Group's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. We're also surprised to see that the price target went unchanged. Still, deteriorating business conditions (assuming accurate forecasts!) can be a leading indicator for the stock price, so we wouldn't blame investors for being more cautious on Mayne Pharma Group after the downgrade.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Mayne Pharma Group going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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