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Last week, you might have seen that Hypoport SE (ETR:HYQ) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.3% to €331 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of €101m and statutory earnings per share of €3.90. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Hypoport's five analysts is for revenues of €396.5m in 2020, which would reflect a solid 10% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be €4.27, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €385.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of €4.33 in 2020. There doesn't appear to have been a major change in sentiment following the results, other than the small lift in revenue estimates.
It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of €313, implying that the uplift in sales is not expected to greatly contribute to Hypoport's valuation in the near term. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Hypoport analyst has a price target of €390 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €160. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Hypoport's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Hypoport's revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 10% increase next year well below the historical 23%p.a. growth over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 0.1% per year. So it's clear that despite the slowdown in growth, Hypoport is still expected to grow meaningfully faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates sales are expected to perform better than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €313, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Hypoport analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Hypoport that we have uncovered.
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