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Anarchy in the UK: How Will UK Voters Lean on the ‘Brexit’ Vote?

Ewen Cameron Watt of BlackRock

Anarchy in the UK: Will UK Voters Favor a 'Brexit'?

(Continued from Prior Part)

So which way will U.K. voters lean? A recent NatCen Social Research poll of polls points to a slim majority for the “remain” camp. The experience of referenda worldwide suggests the status quo tends to gain in the final stages of campaigning.

Market Realist – Voters favor the status quo at the last moment

In early 2015, the chances of the UK (EWU)(EWUS) leaving the European Union were very slim. However, as we move into 2016, the chances of a Brexit have increased—largely because of Europe’s migration crisis, debt issues in some EU (IEUR)(IEV) countries, terrorist attacks, and the euro mess. Some recent surveys even find that the majority supports the “leave” group. However, it’s a very close call, and voters who haven’t decided which way to vote were the majority.

In a blow to the pro-EU camp, a survey by BMG Research puts the “Leave” side at 45%, four points ahead of “Stay” at 41%, while around 14% of voters are undecided. Similarly, an online survey by Opinium shows that 43% of voters would vote “Leave” while 39% would vote “Stay.” Around 18% of voters are “undecided.”

Undecided voters could influence the outcome at the last moment and lean toward the “Stay” side, offering hope to the pro-EU camp. The historical trend at the global (IEFA) level suggests people prefer to vote for the status quo because they dislike uncertainty.

Another section of voters who could turn the referendum in favor of the pro-EU camp is young voters in the 18–34 age group. An Opinium survey found that 53% of young voters would support the status quo compared to 29% who want to leave the European Union.

Browse this series on Market Realist: