Anthem (ANTM) to Post Q1 Earnings: What's in the Offing?
Anthem, Inc. ANTM is slated to report first-quarter 2022 earnings on Apr 20 before the opening bell.
Q1 Estimates
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Anthem’s first-quarter earnings per share is pegged at $7.81, which indicates an improvement of 11.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
The consensus mark for revenues stands at $37.4 billion, suggesting 16.4% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.
Earnings Surprise History
Anthem boasts an impressive earnings surprise history. Its bottom line beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 5.15%. This is depicted in the chart below:
Anthem, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Anthem, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Anthem, Inc. Quote
Factors to Note
Anthem’s first-quarter revenues are likely to have benefited from higher premiums, solid contributions by its health benefits businesses and services units. The rising membership attributable to ANTM’s Medicare and Medicaid businesses is expected to have provided an impetus to the to-be-reported quarter’s performance.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter premiums stands at $32 billion, indicating a 15.7% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
The medical membership of Anthem might have increased in the to-be-reported quarter, driven by its Government and Commercial Businesses. The increased membership in the Medicaid and Medicare Advantage businesses, when combined with ANTM’s buyout of MMM, is expected to have benefited the health insurer’s Government Business. Meanwhile, its Commercial Business is likely to have been driven by the robust growth in risk-based areas.
The consensus mark for Medical membership in the Government Business indicates a rise of 14.5% from the year-ago quarter, while the same for the Commercial & Specialty Business suggests a 2.3% increase year over year.
Anthem’s Medical Loss Ratio is expected to remain high in the to-be-reported quarter due to the continuous incidence of pandemic-related costs related to treatment, vaccination and testing costs.
Prudent capital deployment measures might have aided the bottom line of Anthem in the first quarter. However, its expenses are likely to have remained elevated in the first quarter due to substantial investments in innovation and digital advancements.
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Anthem this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Anthem has an Earnings ESP of -0.54% because the Most Accurate Estimate of $7.77 is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.81. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: ANTM currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Anthem, here are some companies from the Medical space that you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
Lantheus Holdings, Inc. LNTH has an Earnings ESP of +2.17% and a Zacks Rank #1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lantheus’ first-quarter 2022 earnings is pegged at 46 cents, which indicates a more than nine-fold increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure
LNTH’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters of 2021.
ProPhase Labs, Inc. PRPH has an Earnings ESP of +22.08% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ProPhase Labs’ first-quarter 2022 earnings is pegged at 39 cents, indicating a surge of 69.6% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The consensus mark for PRPH’s first-quarter 2022 earnings has moved 62.5% north in the past 30 days.
Merck & Co., Inc. MRK has an Earnings ESP of +4.28% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Merck’s first-quarter 2022 earnings stands at $1.85, suggesting growth of 32.1% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
MRK beat earnings estimates in two of the four reported quarters in 2021 and missed the same twice.
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