Anthony Scaramucci, 31-year market veteran and Skybridge founder, tells Yahoo Finance he has been through nine crises in his long career. And while the road ahead remains uncertain because of the coronavirus, the former Trump communications director and current hedge fund manager thinks the March lows in the market are the bottom.
“I’ve seen this movie before, this is a little different. We have a health care crisis, and oil shock and a global financial crisis happening at the same time. But remember, when we are able to leave our houses our infrastructure is in place, our houses are OK, the banking system is in reasonable to very good shape, there’s $12 trillion of stimulus from the Feds — either it’s the fiscal stimulus which I have calculated now at $6.4 trillion or the Federal Reserve stimulus which is $6.3 trillion,” Scaramucci said on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade.
Scaramucci adds, “So you are replacing about $3.7 trillion of lost economic output with $12.7 trillion coming from the Federal government. I like my chances in that market.”
Whether the market bottom is in or not remains one of the more discussed topics amongst financial services pros. Those in the camp that the March lows will be re-tested — or breached — believe an avalanche of bad data in April and May is poised to pressure risk sentiment once again. They would be right to worry about data flow — big companies such as IBM and Coca-Cola are warning about near-term demand this earnings season and job loss persists across the globe.
Moreover, the rout in oil prices — spurred in large part because of slowing demand due to the coronavirus pandemic — is likely to severely hurt many players in the space.
As those more upbeat on stocks like Scaramucci, their argument centers on the market having priced in the worst-case scenario for the global economy back in late March. With President Trump pressing to reopen parts of the U.S. economy in early May, the bulls think companies will bounce back somewhat quickly later this year. Factor in unprecedented stimulus from the government and Federal Reserve, it’s not a complete surprise that stocks have rallied noticeably since the March 23 lows.
Hercules Investments CEO James McDonald thinks the market will have to be re-priced soon to account for rising corporate defaults and a steady stream of weak earnings. He stands by his call that the Dow Jones Industrial Average could hit 15,000.