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Is Antofagasta plc's (LON:ANTO) Recent Stock Performance Influenced By Its Fundamentals In Any Way?

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Simply Wall St
·4 min read
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Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 19% over the last three months. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company's financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Antofagasta's ROE today.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

See our latest analysis for Antofagasta

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Antofagasta is:

8.8% = US$887m ÷ US$10b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2020).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. That means that for every £1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated £0.09 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Antofagasta's Earnings Growth And 8.8% ROE

When you first look at it, Antofagasta's ROE doesn't look that attractive. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 18% either. Despite this, surprisingly, Antofagasta saw an exceptional 27% net income growth over the past five years. We reckon that there could be other factors at play here. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

As a next step, we compared Antofagasta's net income growth with the industry and found that the company has a similar growth figure when compared with the industry average growth rate of 26% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is ANTO fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Antofagasta Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Antofagasta has a significant three-year median payout ratio of 69%, meaning the company only retains 31% of its income. This implies that the company has been able to achieve high earnings growth despite returning most of its profits to shareholders.

Besides, Antofagasta has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 45% over the next three years. Regardless, the ROE is not expected to change much for the company despite the lower expected payout ratio.

Summary

Overall, we feel that Antofagasta certainly does have some positive factors to consider. While no doubt its earnings growth is pretty substantial, we do feel that the reinvestment rate is pretty low, meaning, the earnings growth number could have been significantly higher had the company been retaining more of its profits. That being so, a study of the latest analyst forecasts show that the company is expected to see a slowdown in its future earnings growth. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.