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Here's The Simplest Reason Lisa Murkowski Likely Won't Support This ACA Repeal Bill

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) being coy with reporters on how she'll vote on yet another Obamacare repeal bill. (Photo: Joshua Roberts / Reuters)
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) being coy with reporters on how she'll vote on yet another Obamacare repeal bill. (Photo: Joshua Roberts / Reuters)

WASHINGTON ― Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has all but killed Obamacare repeal, but there’s still one senator in particular who could make it a done deal and nobody knows where she stands: Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska).

She’s been wavering on the Graham-Cassidy bill for days, and given her role in killing previous bills to gut the Affordable Care Act, she’s left people clamoring to know if she’s prepared to do it again. In light of McCain’s announcement on Friday that he’ll oppose the bill, a “no” vote by Murkowski would officially kill the repeal effort for now.

Her office had no comment in response to McCain’s decision. “No update from us,” Murkowski spokeswoman Karina Petersen said.

There are plenty of reasons to think she won’t support this bill. Murkowski already took a political risk in July when she voted down the last repeal bill. She was hailed as a hero for it by many in Alaska, too, greeted by hugs and flowers when she went back home. She’s also not up for reelection until 2022, and this photo of her hula-hooping soon after that vote seemed to show a liberated senator living her best life and not looking back.

But there’s a simpler reason, too. It’s just math.

Various experts have already explained why Alaska would lose under the Graham-Cassidy bill.

Avalere Health, a consulting firm, said the bill would yield an 11 percent loss in federal funding in the state, or $1 billion, between 2020 and 2026. Groups like Kaiser and the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities show similar numbers. Even the Centers for Medicare for Medicaid Services, which has the rosiest numbers, shows a negative effect on Alaska.

Murkowski’s governor also opposes the bill, and on Friday, Alaska’s health department unveiled a new report projecting that Graham-Cassidy would mean a 65 percent cut in federal funding for the state by 2026.

Those are terrible numbers, and they’ve left bill supporters desperate to figure out a way to win over Murkowski. One idea that’s been floated is to create a carve-out for the state. In that scenario, the bill would be amended to let Alaska keep Obamacare while it’s repealed for nearly every other state.

Murkowski hasn’t said if she’d bite on something like that. But a longtime Republican operative familiar with the dynamics at play in Alaska said the senator is better off not taking any deal on this bill ― and she likely knows it.

“So Lisa Murkowski votes for this bill, she gets to keep the benefits of the Affordable Care Act in Alaska. She votes against the bill, she keeps them as well. Why would she go for that?” said this GOP operative. “The only cost is political in terms of a high profile flip-flop that results in irritating all the constituents who aren’t already angry.”

“This is a win-win for Alaska that would end as a political loss on the scoreboard [if Murkowski voted for the bill],” added the Republican insider.

In this light, the best possible scenario for Murkowski is to reject the bill.

Republican efforts to repeal Obamacare are by no means dead for good, and it’s entirely possible that Murkowski would be up for cutting a deal on a future bill. But if the only thing she’ll gain by voting for Graham-Cassidy is the status quo and a fresh herd of angry voters at home, it’s hard to see the point.

Also on HuffPost

1912

Former President Theodore Roosevelt champions national health insurance as he unsuccessfully tries to ride his progressive Bull Moose Party back to the White House.
Former President Theodore Roosevelt champions national health insurance as he unsuccessfully tries to ride his progressive Bull Moose Party back to the White House.

1935

President Franklin D. Roosevelt favors creating national health insurance amid the Great Depression but decides to push for Social Security first.
President Franklin D. Roosevelt favors creating national health insurance amid the Great Depression but decides to push for Social Security first.

1942

Roosevelt establishes wage and price controls during World War II. Businesses can't attract workers with higher pay so they compete through added benefits, including health insurance, which grows into a workplace perk.
Roosevelt establishes wage and price controls during World War II. Businesses can't attract workers with higher pay so they compete through added benefits, including health insurance, which grows into a workplace perk.

1945

President Harry Truman calls on Congress to create a national insurance program for those who pay voluntary fees. The American Medical Association denounces the idea as "socialized medicine" and it goes nowhere.
President Harry Truman calls on Congress to create a national insurance program for those who pay voluntary fees. The American Medical Association denounces the idea as "socialized medicine" and it goes nowhere.

1960

John F. Kennedy makes health care a major campaign issue but as president can't get a plan for the elderly through Congress.
John F. Kennedy makes health care a major campaign issue but as president can't get a plan for the elderly through Congress.

1965

President Lyndon B. Johnson's legendary arm-twisting and a Congress dominated by his fellow Democrats lead to creation of two landmark government health programs: Medicare for the elderly and Medicaid for the poor.
President Lyndon B. Johnson's legendary arm-twisting and a Congress dominated by his fellow Democrats lead to creation of two landmark government health programs: Medicare for the elderly and Medicaid for the poor.

1974

President Richard Nixon wants to require employers to cover their workers and create federal subsidies to help everyone else buy private insurance. The Watergate scandal intervenes.
President Richard Nixon wants to require employers to cover their workers and create federal subsidies to help everyone else buy private insurance. The Watergate scandal intervenes.

1976

President Jimmy Carter pushes a mandatory national health plan, but economic recession helps push it aside.
President Jimmy Carter pushes a mandatory national health plan, but economic recession helps push it aside.

1986

President Ronald Reagan signs COBRA, a requirement that employers let former workers stay on the company health plan for 18 months after leaving a job, with workers bearing the cost.
President Ronald Reagan signs COBRA, a requirement that employers let former workers stay on the company health plan for 18 months after leaving a job, with workers bearing the cost.

1988

Congress expands Medicare by adding a prescription drug benefit and catastrophic care coverage. It doesn't last long. Barraged by protests from older Americans upset about paying a tax to finance the additional coverage, Congress repeals the law the next year.
Congress expands Medicare by adding a prescription drug benefit and catastrophic care coverage. It doesn't last long. Barraged by protests from older Americans upset about paying a tax to finance the additional coverage, Congress repeals the law the next year.

1993

President Bill Clinton puts first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton in charge of developing what becomes a 1,300-page plan for universal coverage. It requires businesses to cover their workers and mandates that everyone have health insurance. The plan meets Republican opposition, divides Democrats and comes under a firestorm of lobbying from businesses and the health care industry. It dies in the Senate.

1997

Clinton signs bipartisan legislation creating a state-federal program to provide coverage for millions of children in families of modest means whose incomes are too high to qualify for Medicaid. 
Clinton signs bipartisan legislation creating a state-federal program to provide coverage for millions of children in families of modest means whose incomes are too high to qualify for Medicaid. 

2003

President George W. Bush persuades Congress to add prescription drug coverage to Medicare in a major expansion of the program for older people.
President George W. Bush persuades Congress to add prescription drug coverage to Medicare in a major expansion of the program for older people.

2008

Hillary Clinton promotes a sweeping health care plan in her bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. She loses to Barack Obama, who has a less comprehensive plan.
Hillary Clinton promotes a sweeping health care plan in her bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. She loses to Barack Obama, who has a less comprehensive plan.

2009

President Barack Obama and the Democratic-controlled Congress spend an intense year ironing out legislation to require most companies to cover their workers; mandate that everyone have coverage or pay a fine; require insurance companies to accept all comers, regardless of any pre-existing conditions; and assist people who can't afford insurance.
President Barack Obama and the Democratic-controlled Congress spend an intense year ironing out legislation to require most companies to cover their workers; mandate that everyone have coverage or pay a fine; require insurance companies to accept all comers, regardless of any pre-existing conditions; and assist people who can't afford insurance.

2010

With no Republican support, Congress passes the measure, designed to extend health care coverage to more than 30 million uninsured people. Republican opponents scorned the law as "Obamacare."
With no Republican support, Congress passes the measure, designed to extend health care coverage to more than 30 million uninsured people. Republican opponents scorned the law as "Obamacare."

2012

On a campaign tour in the Midwest, Obama himself embraces the term "Obamacare" and says the law shows "I do care."
On a campaign tour in the Midwest, Obama himself embraces the term "Obamacare" and says the law shows "I do care."

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This article originally appeared on HuffPost.

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