Apple (AAPL) iPhone ASP, Robust Services to Drive Q4 Earnings
Apple AAPL is set to release fourth-quarter fiscal 2018 earnings on Nov 1.
We believe continued momentum in iPhone’s average selling price (ASP) as well as anticipated robust performances from the services and wearables businesses are key catalysts.
Impressive Earnings Trend
Apple beats the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average positive surprise being 5.5%.
The company’s third-quarter fiscal 2018 earnings of $2.34 per share and revenues of $53.27 billion comfortably beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.17 and $52.38 billion, respectively.
For fourth-quarter fiscal 2018, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is currently pegged at $61.55 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of almost 17.1%.
Apple Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Apple Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | Apple Inc. Quote
Moreover, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has increased by a penny to $2.78 over the last seven days, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 34.3%.
Factors to Watch Out For
Apple’s fortunes are tied to iPhone, which is by far its biggest revenue contributor. The device accounted for 56.1% of net sales in the last reported quarter, when the company sold 41.3 million units of iPhones.
Although the company sold only a few hundred more iPhones than it did a year ago, segment revenues were 20% higher. This was primarily due to 19.5% boost in iPhone ASP, which was $724 in the quarter.
However, Apple continues to lose smartphone market share that reflects weak shipment growth.
Nevertheless, Apple's Services segment, which includes revenues from Internet Services, App Store, Apple Music, AppleCare, Apple Pay and licensing and other services, is expected to drive top-line growth.
App Store is a key revenue contributor for the Services business. Increase in spending for subscription-based applications such as Netflix NFLX, Tencent Video, Spotify and Tinder is driving growth as well. At the end of the third quarter, there were almost 30,000 subscription-based apps available in the App Store.
Further, App Store’s growth can also be attributed to a strong developer base as well as richness of apps. Active installed base grew double digit in the last reported quarter.
Moreover, the wearables business, which is now the size of a Fortune 300 company, holds significant promise for Apple. Wearables segment, which includes Apple Watch, Beats and AirPods, increased more than 60% year over year in the last reported quarter.
What Our Model Says
According to the Zacks model, a company with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) along with a positive Earnings ESP has a good chance of beating estimates. The Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) are best avoided.
Apple has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +1.45%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are a couple of stocks you may consider, as our proven model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
Himax Technologies HIMX has an Earnings ESP of +48.15% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
HubSpot HUBS has an Earnings ESP of +136.37% and a Zacks Rank #2.
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