April marks the end of our “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. On April 3rd, we will begin looking for our Seasonal MACD Sell Signal and corresponding early signs of seasonal weakness. We will use this signal to begin to take a more defensive posture in the Almanac Investor Stock and ETF Portfolios.
April 1999 was the first month to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit, declining in four of six years. Since 2006, April has been up eleven years in a row with an average gain of 2.6% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. April is second best for S&P and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
Typical post-election blues have done little to damper April’s performance since 1953. April is DJIA’s second best month in post-election years, gaining 1.9% on average. April is fourth best for S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Although post-election year 2005 did suffer a 3% DJIA decline.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today for a Free 7-Day Trial to Almanac Investor to get a full run down of seasonal tendencies that occur throughout each month of the year in an easy-to-read calendar graphic with important economic release dates highlighted, Daily Market Probability Index bullish and bearish days, market trends around options expiration and holidays. In addition, the Monthly Vital Statistics Table combines stats for the Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 and puts them all in a single, easy to read location.