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Aptinyx Inc. (NASDAQ:APTX) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report

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Simply Wall St
·4 min read
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Aptinyx Inc. (NASDAQ:APTX) missed earnings with its latest first-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It looks to have been a weak result overall, as sales of US$818k were 20% less than the analysts expected. Unsurprisingly, losses were also somewhat larger than was modelled, at US$0.34 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Aptinyx

NasdaqGS:APTX Past and Future Earnings May 16th 2020
NasdaqGS:APTX Past and Future Earnings May 16th 2020

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from eight analysts covering Aptinyx is for revenues of US$2.75m in 2020, implying a painful 23% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 19% from last year to US$1.24. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.23m and losses of US$1.19 per share in 2020. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$9.67, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aptinyx at US$13.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$7.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would also point out that the forecast 23% revenue decline is roughly in line with the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink -28% annually over the past year Yet our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are expected, in aggregate, to see their revenues rise 24% over the coming year. So it looks like Aptinyx's revenues are expected to decline at a slower rate than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Aptinyx. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$9.67, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Aptinyx. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Aptinyx going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 5 warning signs for Aptinyx (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you need to take into consideration.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.