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Aquinox Has 33% Upside As These Four Catalysts Come Near

Patrick Williams
  • Aquinox Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: AQXP) shares have lost 13 percent over the past month, trading far below their 52-week high of $55.75.
  • Canaccord Genuity’s Corey Davis maintained a Buy rating for the company, while raising the price target from $10 to $22.
  • The company is expected to launch a BPS/IC indication on its own, Davis said, estimating U.S. sales to grow from $13 million in 2019 to $273 million in 2025.

Earlier in June, AQX-1125's Phase II LEADERSHIP trial in BPS/IC missed its primary endpoint of reduction in average daily pain after six weeks. On August 6, the company revealed “a preponderance of positive results from multiple pre-specified secondary endpoints that revived the stock -- and our view on the chance for success,” analyst Corey Davis said.

In the report Canaccord Genuity noted the most clinically meaningful data points as:

  1. Numerical separation from placebo for all pain endpoints as early as two weeks
  2. Loss of efficacy was seen almost immediately in the two-week follow-up after six weeks of treatment
  3. Statistically significant reduction in "maximum daily pain scores," with the primary being "average daily pain"
  4. Significantly reduced O'Leary-Sant ICSI/PI, a validated, patient reported outcome measure.

“So even though the trial technically failed, there's plenty of supporting evidence to conclude that AQX-1125 has therapeutic potential in IBS/IC. We'll know more after the meeting with FDA in Nov. As a result, we are now only including IBS/ IC in our model and assuming no partnership,” Davis wrote.

U.S. sales are expected to grow from $13 million in 2019 to $273M in 2025, which could prove conservative. “And with nothing else in development we are aware of, Aquinox could own the lion's share of the market given its already very clean safety profile and 1x daily oral dosing,” the report added.

Latest Ratings for AQXP

Date Firm Action From To
Sep 2015 Canaccord Genuity Maintains Buy
Jul 2015 Jefferies Downgrades Buy Hold
Mar 2015 Canaccord Genuity Maintains Buy

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