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Arch Capital (ACGL) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store?

Zacks Equity Research

Arch Capital Group Limited ACGL is slated to report third-quarter 2019 results on Oct 29 after market close. The company has a solid record of delivering positive earnings surprise in the last seven quarters.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.

Premiums in the third quarter are likely to have benefited from improved pricing.

The mortgage insurance business is likely to have benefited from superior risk-in-force portfolio, better credit conditions and conservative lending standards.

Arch Capital estimates third-quarter pre-tax gross catastrophe loss in the range of $65-$75 million, primarily due to Hurricane Dorian and Typhoon Faxai. The estimated losses are net of reinsurance recoveries and reinstatement premiums.  

Reinvestment of fixed income securities at higher available yields and shift from municipal bonds to corporates are likely to have aided net investment income.

Operating expenses are likely to have weighed on margin expansion.

However, continued buyback is expected to have boosted the bottom line.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings stands at 65 cents, implying an increase of 10.2% from the year-ago quarter reported figure.

Arch Capital Group Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise

Arch Capital Group Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise

Arch Capital Group Ltd. price-eps-surprise | Arch Capital Group Ltd. Quote

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Arch Capital this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But this is not the case as you can see below.

Earnings ESP: Arch Capital has an Earnings ESP of -2.70%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of 63 cents is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 65 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Arch Capital carries a Zacks Rank #3.    

Stocks to Consider

Some stocks from the insurance industry with the apt combination of elements to surpass estimates this reporting cycle are as follows:

CNA Financial Corporation CNA is set to report third-quarter earnings on Oct 28. It has an Earnings ESP of +2.25% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Allstate Corporation ALL has an Earnings ESP of +1.64% and is a Zacks #1 Ranked player. The company is slated to announce third-quarter earnings on Oct 29.

Chubb Limited CB has an Earnings ESP of +0.44% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is set to release third-quarter earnings on Oct 29.

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The Allstate Corporation (ALL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Chubb Limited (CB) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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CNA Financial Corporation (CNA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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