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Argo Group International Holdings Ltd (AGII): Are Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Signalling Trouble Ahead?

Brad Riley

Analysts covering Argo Group International Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ:AGII) are predicting double-digit earnings per share contraction of -21.10% over the following three years. Presently, with an EPS of $5.682, we can expect an upcoming EPS of $4.483. To determine whether this negative growth rate expectation is justified, we should take a look at how the company has been performing in the past. See our latest analysis for AGII

What can we expect from AGII in the future?

The bad news for investors of AGII is that a drop in earnings is on the cards. This is based on 3 analysts who estimate earnings dropping to $4.483 from previous levels of around $5.682. This would be a drop of -21.10%, so it will be an interesting ride for any existing shareholders over the next couple of years. During the same time and net income is predicted to dip from $171M to $135M in the next couple of years. In addition to this, at the current levels of revenue and profit, margins are certainly underwhelming.

NasdaqGS:AGII Past Future Earnings Nov 3rd 17

Is this similar growth to the past?

The past can be an insightful indicator for future performance for a stock. We can determine whether this level of expected growth is relatively justified or whether the negative sentiment is too pessimistic. AGII is expected to face a significant change from a previous double-digit growth of 151.07%, over the last five years, to a forecast double-digit decline by analysts. This is highly pessimistic and may be a sign of an investment period for AGII, incurring higher expense growth than revenue.

Next Steps:

For AGII, I’ve compiled three fundamental factors you should further examine:

1. Financial Health: Does it have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.

2. Valuation: What is AGII worth today? Is the stock undervalued, even when its growth outlook is factored into its intrinsic value? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether AGII is currently mispriced by the market.

3. Other High-Growth Alternatives : Are there other high-growth stocks you could be holding instead of AGII? Explore our interactive list of stocks with large growth potential to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.