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Array Stock Could Rise in the Long Run Despite Near-Term Uncertainty, Says J.P. Morgan

Commodity prices are on the rise. The price of steel, for instance, is up by 10% since the start of April and has increased by more than 100% year-over-year. Freight costs have also surged - ocean freight is up by over 145% in the past year and truck freight costs have increased by over 30%.

These issues are a problem for Array Technologies (ARRY) - steel makes up almost half of the company’s COGS (cost of goods sold). The company reported Q1 earnings on Tuesday and cited the price hikes and an ongoing assessment of open contracts as the reasons why it has taken FY21 guidance off the table.

The rest of the quarter’s financials weren’t great but that was expected. Revenue dropped by 43.8% year-over-year to $245.93 million yet still beat the Street’s forecast by $7.07 million. Non-GAAP EPS hit $0.19, one cent below the consensus estimate.

J.P. Morgan’s Paul Coster remains a fan of the solar power equipment maker, but acknowledges the supply chain costs are creating a cloudy near-term outlook.

“Demand remains at record levels and the company is not being squeezed by existing contracts, but rather faces uncertainty regarding the timing and profitability of unsigned contracts, which may potentially be delayed beyond prior expectations. We are lowering our estimates accordingly to factor in this uncertainty, though are subject to change based on dynamic macro factors,” Coster noted.

Accordingly, Coster reduced his FY21 EBITDA estimate from $173 million to $84 million.

There’s also a slash to the stock price target which drops from $46 to $40. That said, following Wednesday’s bloodbath, there’s still potential upside of 177% from current levels. Coster’s rating stays an Overweight (i.e. Buy). (To watch Coster’s track record, click here)

Looking at the consensus breakdown, based on 4 Buys and Holds, each, plus 1 Sell, ARRY stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating. The analysts evidently think the shares are currently undervalued; going by the $33.56 average price target, the stock is expected to be changing hands for a 132% premium a year from now. (See ARRY stock analysis on TipRanks)

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.