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Shares and dollar rise on more signs of economic recovery

People walk past an electronic information board at the London Stock Exchange in the City of London October 11, 2013. REUTERS/Stefan Wermuth

By Sudip Kar-Gupta

LONDON (Reuters) - Global equities and the dollar rose on Wednesday, as solid German economic data pointed to a pick-up in world trade and kept European shares near five-and-a-half year highs.

News on Tuesday that the U.S. trade deficit was at a four-year low also bolstered optimism over the global economy and lifted the dollar. Meanwhile, a bumper Irish debt sale has boosted confidence in debt from the euro zone periphery.

The MSCI world equity index <.MIWD00000PUS>, which tracks shares in 45 countries, edged up 0.1 percent on Wednesday to reach its highest level in five-and-a-half years. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) jumped 1.9 percent to approach a six-year peak.

Data showing that exports from Europe's biggest economy, Germany, rose for a fourth straight month in November was the latest sign that the euro zone economy and world trade are slowly recovering from the 2008 financial crisis.

Further signs came from bumper demand on Tuesday for Ireland's first debt sale since it exited an international bailout program. Spanish and Irish government bond yields hovered near multi-year lows on Wednesday.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) slipped 0.1 percent but remained close to its highest level since mid-2008. Futures on the U.S. stock markets, which have hit record highs, edged back by 0.1 percent.

Shares in Asia excluding Japan rose, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index (.MSCIEF) was up 0.3 percent.

Francois Savary, chief investment officer at Swiss bank Reyl, says equity markets may slip back this month as investors cash in gains on the rally so far. And Old Mutual Global Investors fund manager Francois Zagame cautions that the global economy still needs to strengthen further. But both are optimistic over the longer-term prospects for equities in 2014.

"We're cautiously optimistic on equities altogether," Zagame said. "The data points in the U.S. are OK to good, but it's still sub-trend growth. We've had our doubts over Europe, but it looks as if Europe should muddle through."


The U.S. dollar (.DXY) climbed against the yen after the U.S. trade deficit shrank, and also edged up against the euro.

Signs of a U.S. recovery have reassured some investors that the world's biggest economy can withstand a Federal Reserve decision to scale its bond-buying program. That program drove many investors into equities by curtailing returns on cash and bonds, fuelling much of last year's stock market rally.

Minutes of the Fed's December meeting are due later on Wednesday. Markets will be hoping for a clear commitment to keeping rates low for a long time to come.

The European Central Bank also meets on Thursday for the first time in 2014. Analysts and investors doubt it will do more than flag its readiness to act in the future, despite another surprising fall in euro zone inflation.

Data on Tuesday showed inflation in the euro zone eased to just 0.8 percent in December, highlighting the risk of deflation.

"While we think that the ECB will remain on hold this week, we are expecting a very dovish statement from ECB President (Mario) Draghi," economists at ANZ wrote in a note to clients.

The generally positive economic backdrop also caused gold to ease for a second session on Wednesday.

Even though most investors remain optimistic on prospects for 2014, the economic recovery still faces threats. One is a possible spike in bond yields as the Fed winds down its bond-buying. Another is a rise in oil prices amid unrest in the Middle East and Africa.

Brent crude has steadied above $107 a barrel after new worries over Libyan supplies.

(Additional reporting by Wayne Cole, Toni Vorobyova and Marius Zaharia; Editing by Larry King)