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Assertio (ASRT) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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We expect investors to focus on the sales performance of Assertio Holdings’ ASRT marketed drugs when it reports first-quarter 2022 results on May 9, after the market closes.

ASRT’s earnings surpassed expectations in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the same on the other two occasions, the average surprise being 20.8%. In the last reported quarter, Assertio Holdings witnessed a negative earnings surprise of 16.7%.

Assertio Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Assertio Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Assertio Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Assertio Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Assertio Holdings, Inc. Quote

In the year so far, shares of Assertio Holdings have risen 2.8% against the industry’s 19.1% fall.

Zacks Investment Research
Zacks Investment Research

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Let’s see how things have shaped up for the quarter to be reported.

Factors to Consider

Assertio Holdings currently has multiple marketed products in its portfolio targeting a diverse range of diseases. ASRT’s lead product is Indocin, approved by the FDA for multiple indications, including rheumatoid arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis and osteoarthritis. The drug is approved by the regulatory agency for use in both suppository and oral solution forms.

Other marketed products include Cambia (for acute treatment of migraine attacks with or without aura), Otrexup (an injection containing methotrexate for treating rheumatoid arthritis and active polyarticular juvenileidiopathic arthritis) and Oxaydi, Sprix and Zipsor (for pain management).

Otrexup was acquired by Assertio Holdings from Antares Pharma ATRS last December. Per the terms of the acquisition deal, Assertio Holdings will pay a purchase price of $44 million to Antares Pharma in three different intervals.

ASRT expects the purchase to be accretive to earnings from 2022 onward. Assertio Holdings plans to sustain its acquisitions with products like Otrexup to generate at least $50 million of gross profit by 2024. Prior to its sell-off, Antares Pharma had reported $15.5 million of revenues from Otrexup sales in the trailing 12 months.

In the last reported quarter, total revenues were up 24% sequentially and 7% year over year, driven by net price favorability for Indocin, Cambia and Zipsor, a trend that most likely continued in the to-be reported quarter too. Assertio Holdings completed a restructuring plan in third-quarter 2022, which was implemented in December 2020. This, in turn, helped the company achieve $45 million of annualized synergies starting 2022.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Assertio Holdings this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, that is not the case here as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Assertio Holdings has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 91 cents.

Zacks Rank: Assertio Holdings currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Adicet Bio ACET has an Earnings ESP of +218.52% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

In the past 30 days, estimates for Adicet Bio’s 2022 loss per share have narrowed from $1.05 to $1.03. Earnings of Adicet Bio missed estimates in three of the last four quarters and beat the mark on one occasion, witnessing a negative surprise of 13.3%, on average.

Novavax NVAX has an Earnings ESP of +10.13% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

In the past 30 days, estimates for Novavax’s 2022 earnings per share have increased from $22.84 to $24.26. The same for 2023 has increased from $14.86 to $15.27 in the past 30 days. Earnings of Novavax missed estimates in each of the last four quarters, witnessing a negative surprise of 182.5%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Adicet Bio, Inc. (ACET) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Antares Pharma, Inc. (ATRS) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Assertio Holdings, Inc. (ASRT) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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