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We expect investors to focus on Athira Pharma, Inc.’s ATHA development efforts for its pipeline candidates when it reports second-quarter 2021 results.
Athira’s common stock began trading on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange in September 2020.
The company surpassed expectations in two of the trailing three quarters, while missing on one occasion. The average three-quarter negative earnings surprise was 104.7%. In the last reported quarter, Athira delivered an earnings surprise of 16.7%.
Athira’s stock has plunged 70.6% this year so far in comparison with the industry‘s decline of 1.1%.
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Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.
Factors to Consider
Athira has no sources of revenues. With the absence of any marketed drugs in its portfolio, pipeline development — especially updates on its small molecule candidate ATH-1017 for Alzheimer’s disease (“AD”) — should remain the key focus for Athira’s second-quarter conference call.
ATH-1017 — Athira’s leading pipeline candidate — is an investigational subcutaneous drug for potential treatment of AD and Parkinson’s disease dementia (“PDD”)
Based on positive data from phase Ia/Ib studies of ATH-1017, Athira initiated two mid-stage studies to evaluate the candidate in 2020. The company has been enrolling patients in phase II/III LIFT-AD study and phase II ACT-AD study for the treatment of mild-to-moderate AD. While the LIFT-AD study aims to evaluate the safety, efficacy and tolerability of two dose levels of the drug, the ACT-AD study targets to better understand the overall effects of the drug on working memory processing speed and cognitive measures. Top-line data from ACT-AD and LIFT-AD studies are anticipated in early-2022 and end-2022, respectively. In July 2021, Athira initiated an open label extension study for LIFT-AD and ACT-AD studies of ATH-1017 for AD.
In addition, Athira plans to initiate phase II study of ATH-1017 in patients with PDD by 2021-end.
The company also anticipates submitting investigational new drug (IND) applications for other pipeline candidates ATH-1019/ATH-1020 by end-2021. ATH-1019/ATH-1020 are being developed for neuropsychiatric indications including depression, anxiety and potentially schizophrenia.
Research & development costs are expected to have increased in the second quarter.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Athira this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, that is not the case here as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and the Most Accurate Estimate stand at a loss of 37 cents per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Athira currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Athira Pharma, Inc. Price
Athira Pharma, Inc. price | Athira Pharma, Inc. Quote
Stocks to Consider
Here are some biotech/drug stocks that have the right mix of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Ironwood IRWD has an Earnings ESP of +11.11% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Moderna MRNA has an Earnings ESP of +24.12% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Prothena Corporation PRTA has an Earnings ESP of +25.66% and a Zacks Rank #3.
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Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IRWD) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Prothena Corporation plc (PRTA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Athira Pharma, Inc. (ATHA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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