Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAWW) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
What Is Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings had US$2.36b of debt in June 2019, down from US$2.50b, one year before. However, it does have US$117.8m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$2.25b.
A Look At Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings's Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings had liabilities of US$966.7m due within a year, and liabilities of US$2.89b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$117.8m and US$265.5m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$3.47b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the US$735.6m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt At the end of the day, Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
While Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings's debt to EBITDA ratio (4.2) suggests that it uses some debt, its interest cover is very weak, at 2.2, suggesting high leverage. It seems that the business incurs large depreciation and amortisation charges, so maybe its debt load is heavier than it would first appear, since EBITDA is arguably a generous measure of earnings. So shareholders should probably be aware that interest expenses appear to have really impacted the business lately. Even more troubling is the fact that Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings actually let its EBIT decrease by 10.0% over the last year. If that earnings trend continues the company will face an uphill battle to pay off its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
On the face of it, Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. And even its net debt to EBITDA fails to inspire much confidence. We think the chances that Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings has too much debt a very significant. To our minds, that means the stock is rather high risk, and probably one to avoid; but to each their own (investing) style. Above most other metrics, we think its important to track how fast earnings per share is growing, if at all. If you've also come to that realization, you're in luck, because today you can view this interactive graph of Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings's earnings per share history for free.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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