USDCHF–Retail forex crowds are their most long USDCHF since the pair last traded to year-to-date lows near SFr 0.9000, and extremely one-sided sentiment favors buying at these levels.
Trade Implications – USDCHF: We would typically take a contrarian view and sell USDCHF as a whopping 80+ percent of retail traders are currently long. But the crowd is often ‘right’ at major price/sentiment extremes; we’re looking for a good price at which to buy.
Risk is well-defined here as a close below 0.9000 would invalidate the trade, while topside targets start at major intraday congestion levels in the 0.9140-0.9170 range.
--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
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