The Australian dollar rallied significantly during the trading session on Thursday but ran into enough resistance above the 0.6750 level to fade a bit. This is something that we have seen repeatedly, so I’m not overly surprised to see this happen into the American session. Ultimately, the Australian dollar is highly levered to China, and unless there is some type of positive move coming out of the talks, it’s hard to get excited about owning the Aussie.
AUD/USD Video 11.10.19
On the other side of the equation we have the US Treasury markets attracting attention overall, and it makes quite a bit of sense that the US dollar should continue to strengthen. Although we know that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates going forward, the reality is that most central banks around the world are approaching negative interest rates, while the Americans are still going to offer some yield. While Australia also offers positive yield, it is far too dependent on the Chinese economy to think that the situation between the Americans and the Chinese isn’t going to cause major hurt. Beyond that, the Australian dollar is going to suffer at the hands of a housing issue in Australia that is bubbling to the surface again. All things being equal, it’s likely that we will continue to see sellers come in every time we rally, especially as the 50 day EMA gets a bit closer to the current pricing.
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This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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