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Australian dollar weakens amidst strengthening USD

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AUD – Australian Dollar

The AUD fell throughout the past week against the United States Dollar to open at a 1 month low of 0.6908. This was mostly owing to a strengthening USD due to a higher than expected Advance GDP quarterly result of 2.1% against the forecasted figure of 1.8%.

The AUD can expect some volatility in the upcoming week with the quarterly CPI data being released on Wednesday. Showing the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, the CPI accounts for a majority of overall inflation. Retail sales figures are also being confirmed on Friday. These numbers which show the change in total value of sales, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. Both these releases are expected to have a major impact on the AUD.

Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing released on Wednesday morning is also likely to drive the AUD. As China is Australia’s largest export destination, our dollar figure is heavily swayed if released figures are a lot different than expected.

Key Movers

Brexit is still holding all the headlines as new Prime Minister Boris Johnson has stated he is fully committed to a ‘no deal’ Brexit, and intends to delivery it by the 31st of October by “any means necessary”. The GBP will also see further movements with the Bank of England (BOE) rate meeting this Thursday evening, where the expectation is that the committee will vote to maintain the Bank rate at 0.75%.

On the trade-front, US Trade Representative Lightziger and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will travel to China this upcoming week to continue negotiations with China. Trump has reported that China may hold off on agreeing to a deal until after the election next year.

US employment data is also scheduled to be released late Friday night. The Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate show the figures of employed and unemployment people during the previous month, and is a heavy driver for the USD.

Expected Ranges

AUD/CAD: 0.9055 – 0.9130 ▼

AUD/EUR: 0.6140 – 0.6230 ▼

GBP/AUD: 1.7725 – 1.8070 ▲

AUD/NZD: 1.0340 – 1.0435 ▼

AUD/USD: 0.6870 – 0.6940 ▼


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