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The Avarga (SGX:U09) Share Price Is Down 33% So Some Shareholders Are Getting Worried

Simply Wall St

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers So we wouldn't blame long term Avarga Limited (SGX:U09) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 33% over a half decade. There was little comfort for shareholders in the last week as the price declined a further 2.2%.

View our latest analysis for Avarga

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, Avarga actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 54% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past. Due to the lack of correlation between the EPS growth and the falling share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movement.

The steady dividend doesn't really explain why the share price is down. While it's not completely obvious why the share price is down, a closer look at the company's history might help explain it.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

SGX:U09 Income Statement, September 11th 2019

If you are thinking of buying or selling Avarga stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Avarga the TSR over the last 5 years was -1.5%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Avarga has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 6.1% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 0.3% per year over five years. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. Importantly, we haven't analysed Avarga's dividend history. This free visual report on its dividends is a must-read if you're thinking of buying.

We will like Avarga better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on SG exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.