The high times for Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB) have certainly come down over the past couple months. But before you think a cheaper-priced ACB stock means better value, risks off and on the price chart remain. Let me explain.
Source: Aurora Cannabis
There’s still a lot of buzz surrounding the cannabis industry and plenty of support from Wall Street pitching optimistic favor about the group’s growth prospects. No doubt there’s also some very well-supported and cash-flush companies like Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC) and Cronos (NASDAQ:CRON), which are in position to emerge as future leaders in the space. Many investors also agree Aurora stock is another standout in this emerging market.
Still, the other side of this argument is the growing pains and delays the cannabis industry will undoubtedly continue to face. Discounting these would be a mistake. It would also be neglectful to not respect some of ACB stock’s company-specific risks.
Rightfully, investors can make the case for Aurora due to the company’s valuation discount versus competitors in today’s market or the company’s impressive sales beat last quarter. But massive goodwill tied to ACB stock’s aggressive acquisition strategy over the past couple years is approaching 60% of the company’s valuation and a definite yellow flag for investors.
Also, Aurora stock’s quest to capitalize on the cannabis market’s secular growth prospects has come with the very real cost of share-based dilution.
The varied and extensive costs associated with Aurora positioning itself as industry leader has been fueled by massive dilution. In the process ACB’s share count has exploded from about 16 million to roughly 1.0 billion shares. And that’s a huge burden on earnings.
ACB Stock Weekly Chart
The risks on ACB stock’s price chart also shouldn’t be overlooked. As the weekly chart shows, a couple momentum phases have been replaced by 13 weeks of Aurora shares grinding lower. But today’s 40% discount from last year’s marginal all-time-high also doesn’t necessarily mean value is at hand.
As Aurora stock has declined in price the past couple months shares have failed to hold the 50% retracement level from 2018’s high to December’s corrective bottom. In our view that weakness could be an indication the cannabis narrative is growing long in-the-tooth and riskier every day for investors to buy into. It’s akin to the glass being just half empty rather than half full in ACB shares.
If there is any chance for ACB stock to shake off what could be a long road downhill, I believe it needs to happen sooner rather than later. Optimistically, there is a weekly doji and inside candle in place. If the pattern high of $8.16 is penetrated, it’s a bullish signal.
Backing up that promise, shares are also testing the 50% level of ACB’s 2019 Fibonacci cycle and critical longer-term 40-week simple moving average. Aurora stock is also sporting a supportive oversold stochastics condition. Bottom line, the right technical ingredients for ACB stock to regain its mojo are there. However, I’d strongly caution keeping a lid on any losses generated from a pending buy signal in a name and an industry with a lot to prove.
Disclosure: Investment accounts under Christopher Tyler’s management do not currently own positions in any securities mentioned in this article. The information offered is based upon Christopher Tyler’s observations and strictly intended for educational purposes only; the use of which is the responsibility of the individual. For additional options-based strategies and related musings, follow Chris on Twitter @Options_CAT and StockTwits.
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