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AXIS Capital Holdings Limited AXS estimates third-quarter 2021 catastrophe loss of $250 million, before taxes ($219 million, after-tax). The estimated pre-tax net loss consists of $175 million stemming from Hurricane Ida, $55 million from July European floods and $20 million from other catastrophe and weather-related events.
The insurer noted that these losses were consistent with industry insured losses of about $35 billion attributable to Hurricane Ida and $13 billion attributable to European floods.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AXIS Capital’s third-quarter is currently pegged at a loss of 14 cents, which is narrower than the year-ago quarter reported loss of 77 cents. We expect estimates to move south once analysts start incorporating loss estimates into their numbers.
Colorado State University hurricane researchers continue to predict an active 2021 Atlantic hurricane season.
RMS, the world’s leading catastrophe risk solutions company, estimates total onshore and offshore U.S. insured losses from Hurricane Ida in the range of $31 to $44 billion. This estimate is in addition to the previous industry loss estimate of $25-$35 billion for the Gulf of Mexico region that includes inland flooding impacts in the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast U.S. regions.
Modeling firm AIR Worldwide updated its insured loss estimates for Hurricane Ida, which is projected in the range of $20 billion to $30 billion. AIR estimates wind and storm surge losses to range from $17 to $25 billion, and private-market insured losses from inland flooding to range from $2.5 billion to $5 billion.
Being a property and casualty insurer, the insurer has substantial exposure to losses from natural disasters, man-made catastrophes and other catastrophic events, which have been inducing volatility in its underwriting results. In the first half of 2021, pre-tax catastrophe and weather-related losses, net of reinsurance and reinstatement premiums, decreased 58.6% year over year. The losses were attributable to winter storms Uri and Viola, principally related to the state of Texas, and other weather-related events. Thus, underwriting income of $188.5 million rebounded from the prior-year quarter’s loss of $109.3 million while combined ratio improved 1240 basis points (bps) to 94.7.
Shares of AXIS Capital have gained 17.9% in the past year, compared with the industry’s increase of 28.9%.
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AXIS Capital presently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Q3 Catastrophe Loss Estimates of Other P&C Insurers
RLI Corporation RLI estimates third-quarter catastrophe loss of $30-$35 million pre-tax, primarily stemming from Hurricane Ida as well as other catastrophes. The Hanover Insurance Group THG estimates third-quarter catastrophe loss of $150-$165 million pre-tax or $119-$130 million after taxes, primarily stemming from Hurricane Ida. Horace Mann Educators Corporation HMN estimates $35 million to $40 million, pretax, catastrophe loss, most notably driven by the effects of Hurricane Ida.
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