As you might know, Axonics Modulation Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXNX) just kicked off its latest first-quarter results with some very strong numbers. Sales crushed expectations at US$26m, beating expectations by 82%. Axonics Modulation Technologies reported a statutory loss of US$0.43 per share, which - although not amazing - was much smaller than the analysts predicted. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Axonics Modulation Technologies from seven analysts is for revenues of US$81.8m in 2020 which, if met, would be a huge 110% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 29% to US$1.93. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$80.9m and losses of US$1.97 per share in 2020.
As a result there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$45.13, implying that the business is trading roughly in line with expectations despite ongoing losses. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Axonics Modulation Technologies, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$50.00 and the most bearish at US$40.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Axonics Modulation Technologies' revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 110% increase next year well below the historical 2069% growth over the last year. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.0% next year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Axonics Modulation Technologies is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Axonics Modulation Technologies. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Axonics Modulation Technologies going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here..
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Axonics Modulation Technologies (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.
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