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BancFirst Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

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  • BANF

BancFirst Corporation (NASDAQ:BANF) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$110m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 17%, coming in at just US$0.63 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for BancFirst

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from BancFirst's four analysts is for revenues of US$436.0m in 2021, which would reflect a meaningful 15% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 9.8% to US$3.35. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$440.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.33 in 2021. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$45.00. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values BancFirst at US$47.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$43.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the BancFirst's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that BancFirst's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 15% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 8.1%p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 1.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that BancFirst is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$45.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for BancFirst going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.