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Investors in BancFirst Corporation (NASDAQ:BANF) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.0% to close at US$39.57 following the release of its second-quarter results. Revenues were US$109m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.63, an impressive 31% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
After the latest results, the four analysts covering BancFirst are now predicting revenues of US$443.0m in 2020. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 13% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to descend 15% to US$2.91 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$451.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.00 in 2020. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
The consensus price target held steady at US$42.50, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic BancFirst analyst has a price target of US$46.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$36.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting BancFirst's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 13% growth ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 8.5% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 1.9% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect BancFirst to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on BancFirst. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for BancFirst going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We also provide an overview of the BancFirst Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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