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Is Bango plc (LON:BGO) Worth UK£0.89 Based On Intrinsic Value?

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Does the February share price for Bango plc (LON:BGO) reflect it’s really worth? Today, I will calculate the stock’s intrinsic value by taking the foreast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today’s value. I will be using the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the basis for my calcs can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. If you are reading this and its not February 2019 then I highly recommend you check out the latest calculation for Bango by following the link below.

The method

I use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of varying growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a more stable growth phase. To begin with we have to get estimates of the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. The sum of these cash flows is then discounted to today’s value.

5-year cash flow forecast

 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Levered FCF (£, Millions) £6.50 £5.27 £4.32 £3.58 £3.01 Source Analyst x1 Est @ -19%, capped from -21.73% Est @ -18%, capped from -21.73% Est @ -17%, capped from -21.73% Est @ -16%, capped from -21.73% Present Value Discounted @ 8.25% £6.00 £4.49 £3.40 £2.61 £2.03

Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= UK£19m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 5-year period we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of the GDP. In this case I have used the 10-year government bond rate (1.2%). In the same way as with the 5-year ‘growth’ period, we discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 8.2%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2023 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£3.0m × (1 + 1.2%) ÷ (8.2% – 1.2%) = UK£43m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = UK£43m ÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)5 = UK£29m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is UK£48m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) or ADR then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of £0.68. Relative to the current share price of £0.89, the stock is quite expensive at the time of writing.

The assumptions

I’d like to point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don’t agree with my result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. Because we are looking at Bango as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 8.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For BGO, there are three fundamental factors you should further research:

1. Financial Health: Does BGO have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
2. Future Earnings: How does BGO’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of BGO? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the LON every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.