Post-GFC recovery has led to improving credit quality and a strong growth environment for the banking sector. Economic growth impacts the stability of salaries and interest rate level which in turn affects borrowers’ demand for, and ability to repay, their loans. As a small-cap bank with a market capitalisation of US$66.99M, Bank of the James Financial Group Inc’s (NASDAQ:BOTJ) profit and value are directly affected by economic activity. Risk associate with repayment is measured by the level of bad debt which is an expense written off Bank of the James Financial Group’s bottom line. Today I will take you through some bad debt and liability measures to analyse the level of risky assets held by the bank. Looking through a risk-lens is a useful way to assess the attractiveness of Bank of the James Financial Group’s a stock investment. See our latest analysis for Bank of the James Financial Group
How Good Is Bank of the James Financial Group At Forecasting Its Risks?
Bank of the James Financial Group’s ability to forecast and provision for its bad loans indicates it has a good understanding of the level of risk it is taking on. If the level of provisioning covers 100% or more of the actual bad debt expense the bank writes off, then it is relatively accurate and prudent in its bad debt provisioning. With a bad loan to bad debt ratio of 131.76%, the bank has cautiously over-provisioned by 31.76%, which illustrates a safe and prudent forecasting methodology, and its ability to anticipate the factors contributing to its bad loan levels.
How Much Risk Is Too Much?
If Bank of the James Financial Group does not engage in overly risky lending practices, it is considered to be in good financial shape. Loans that cannot be recovered by the bank are known as bad loans and typically should make up less than 3% of its total loans. When these loans are not repaid, they are written off as expenses which comes directly out of the bank’s profit. A ratio of 0.7% indicates the bank faces relatively low chance of default and exhibits strong bad debt management.
Is There Enough Safe Form Of Borrowing?
Bank of the James Financial Group operates by lending out its various forms of borrowings. Customers’ deposits tend to carry the smallest risk given the relatively stable interest rate and amount available. The general rule is the higher level of deposits a bank holds, the less risky it is considered to be. Bank of the James Financial Group’s total deposit level of 97.10% of its total liabilities is very high and is well-above the sensible level of 50% for financial institutions. This may mean the bank is too cautious with its level of its safer form of borrowing and has plenty of headroom to take on risker forms of liability.
With positive measures for all three ratios, Bank of the James Financial Group shows a prudent level of managing its risky assets. It seems to have a clear understanding of how much it needs to provision each year for lower quality borrowers and it has maintained a safe level of deposits against its liabilities. The company’s judicious lending strategy gives us higher conviction in its ability to manage its operational risks which makes Bank of the James Financial Group a less risky investment. Keep in mind that a stock investment requires research on more than just its operational side. There are three relevant aspects you should further research:
- Valuation: What is BOTJ worth today? Has the future growth potential already been factored into the price? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether BOTJ is currently mispriced by the market.
- Management Team: An experienced management team on the helm increases our confidence in the business – take a look at who sits on Bank of the James Financial Group’s board and the CEO’s back ground.
- Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.
To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.