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The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) Up 5.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

·5 min read

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK). Shares have added about 5.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

BNY Mellon Q4 Earnings Beat, Revenues & Costs Rise Y/Y

BNY Mellon’s fourth-quarter 2021 adjusted earnings of $1.04 per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.02. The bottom line represents a rise of 8.3% from the prior-year quarter.

Results were aided by provision benefits and a rise in fee income. Growth in asset balances was another tailwind. However, a marginal fall in net interest income and higher expenses were the undermining factors.

Net income applicable to common shareholders (GAAP basis) was $822 million or $1.01 per share, up from $702 million or 79 cents per share recorded in the year-ago quarter.

For 2021, earnings per share (GAAP basis) of $4.14 increased 8% from 2020. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings was $4.17 per share. Net income applicable to common shareholders was $3.55 billion, up 4% year over year.

Revenues Improve, Expenses Rise

Total quarterly revenues grew 4% year over year to $4.02 billion. The top line outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.98 billion.

For 2021, revenues were $15.93 billion, up 1% year over year. The top line outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.90 billion.

Quarterly NIR, on a fully taxable-equivalent (FTE) basis, was $681 million, down marginally year over year. The fall was mainly due to lower interest rates on interest-earning assets and the impact of hedging activities, partially offset by benefits from low deposit and funding rates, and higher deposit and loan balances.

NIM (FTE basis) contracted 1 basis point (bp) year over year to 0.71%.

Total fee and other revenues rose 6% to $3.34 billion. The rise was driven by an increase in almost all components of fee revenues, except for distribution and servicing fees.

Money market fee waivers were $278 million, up 87% year over year. Fee revenues (excluding money market fee waivers) increased 8%.

Total non-interest expenses (GAAP basis) were $2.97 billion, up 1% year over year. The rise was due to an increase in almost all cost components, except for net occupancy expenses, costs related to amortization of intangible assets, distribution and servicing costs, and other expenses. Excluding notable items, non-interest expenses increased 6%.

Asset Position Strong

As of Dec 31, 2021, AUM was $2.4 trillion, up 10% year over year. The rise was mainly driven by higher market values and net inflows.

AUC/A of $46.7 trillion grew 14%, reflecting higher market values and net client inflows, partially offset by the unfavorable impact of a stronger U.S. dollar.

Credit Quality Improves

Allowance for loan losses as a percentage of total loans was 0.29%, down 34 bps from the prior-year quarter. In the reported quarter, the company recorded a provision benefit of $17 million against a provision for credit losses of $15 million in the year-ago quarter.

As of Dec 31, 2021, non-performing assets were $78 million, down 12% year over year.

Capital Ratios Deteriorate

As of Dec 31, 2021, common equity Tier 1 ratio was 11.1%, down from 13.1% in the prior-year quarter. Tier 1 Leverage ratio was 5.5%, down from 6.3% on Dec 30, 2021.

Share Repurchase Update

In the reported quarter, BNY Mellon repurchased 22 million shares for $1.2 billion.

2022 Outlook

The company expects double-digit earnings per share growth. Consistent organic growth, along with expectations for higher interest rates, will likely enable BNY Mellon to generate positive operating leverage.

NIR is expected to increase 10%, primarily driven by higher rates and balance sheet mix, partially offset by an expectation of lower deposit balances.

Continued organic growth and lower fee waivers are expected to result in total fee growth of 7%.

Excluding notable items, expenses are expected to increase 5.5% year over year. Almost 60% of the rise is expected to be driven by higher revenue-related expenses, which include higher distribution and servicing expenses associated with fee waivers and the impacts of inflationary pressures. The remainder will likely be driven by investments.

In first-quarter 2022, staff expenses (excluding-notable items) are anticipated to be up 6% year over year.

The effective tax rate is projected to be 19%.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -6.72% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. However, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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